Reversal requires meeting two major core conditions:
On one hand, the long-term held supply of BTC must account for over 75% of the total circulating supply. According to current data and trends, while the long-held ratio is rising, it has yet to reach this critical threshold; on the other hand, the macroeconomic level must enter a period of pausing interest rate hikes and implementing quantitative easing (QE) policies. At the same time, BTC needs sufficient narrative hotspots to drive speculation, and there should be no major negative events interfering with the market.
Since Trump took office and implemented water control policies, his influence on the market has gradually weakened, but the aftereffects remain.
Currently, the market is focused on the impact of interest rate cuts on the economy and employment, while the subsequent risk of economic recession in the United States has become a focal point of market concern.
Once an economic recession arrives, it could trigger a drastic market situation similar to '312', at which point a true market bottom may be expected.
In the current left-side rebound market, whether in the primary market project investments or secondary market token trading, it is not advisable to overly maintain a long-term holding 'pattern' mentality.
The widespread celebration season in the altcoin market is unlikely to appear in the short term. It is recommended that investors remain patient and wait for the arrival of the right-side reversal market, before grasping more certain investment opportunities.
