Intraday market analysis for Bitcoin and Ethereum
The direction of the tree is determined by the wind, while the direction of a person is determined by themselves. The price rebounded to a high point of 95426 under pressure in the early morning, pulled back to a low point of 93678, and the market is once again in a wide range of fluctuations, with the box structure still unbroken. The real layout is also centered around the range, focusing on short positions. Currently, the structure is very clear: upper pressure at 960 and lower at 930. There hasn't been a strong one-sided trend, and the market is still maintaining a state of oscillation and adjustment.
Currently, in the daily chart, small upward movements are consolidating. The comparison is in a horizontal consolidation, with bullish trends weakening. There is still a demand for short-term pullbacks. Today is also the end of the month, with a medium upward move closing at a high position. The market has not seen follow-through, and the lower shadow is relatively long. In the 4-hour structure, it has entered a narrow range of fluctuations. Multiple attempts by bulls to break through have been unsuccessful, without extending momentum. The comparison remains consolidated around the mid-track. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, and the hour chart shows a clear V-shaped structure, with continuous alternation of highs and lows. The comparison has not given a strong one-sided continuation, so intraday short operations should still look at the range; if broken, follow the trend.
In the morning, Bitcoin can short at 950-955, targeting around 930, while Ethereum can short at 1820-1850, targeting around 1700.
During the May Day Golden Week (5.1-5.5), retail investors in A-shares may enter the market, so the main players might take the opportunity to make moves during the holiday, potentially driving prices up. If long positions are in profit, after taking some profit, just hold on and protect the capital loss. As long as support is not broken, look upwards. Tomorrow, on May 1st, if the (interest) meeting does not raise interest rates, the market may pulse upwards.
On the last day of the holiday on May 5th, especially in the late night, the main players might take advantage of the fatigue to launch a surprise attack. Sometimes, they may even strike a day in advance on May 4th, setting the stage for the interest rate meeting two days later. Generally, there will be a transition to fluctuations 1-2 days before the meeting, with the US market entering a decline on May 7th for respect.
Therefore, next week, bulls need to converge and maintain low leverage and light positions. The Federal Reserve's meeting on May 8th usually sees the main players withdraw 24 hours in advance to observe. No interest rate cut in May is in line with expectations and is not considered bearish. However, the probability of a rate cut in June is high, and May may preemptively digest the positive expectations for June.
Rice Robotics and FLOKI are launching the $rice token, with TokenFi Launchpad introduced, allowing $FLOKI and $TOKEN stakers to participate in the token sale through TokenFi Launchpad.
FLOKI has recently risen by 40% and the momentum has not stopped, stating, 'We have just begun.'
Against the backdrop of an overall correction in the MEME sector, FLOKI is showing independent market behavior. Technically, there is significant selling pressure around 0.00009, but a gentle increase in volume indicates strong market support, and the short-term trend integrity remains. If it effectively stabilizes after retracing to MA7 (currently around 0.000078), it is expected to restart upward momentum. It is recommended to control positions and adopt a low-buy strategy (enter in batches when retracing to MA7) to avoid chasing highs.
May market outlook: Analysis of the most potentially hundred-fold Alpha tracks
If the market experiences explosive trends in May, the following tracks are most likely to generate excess return (Alpha) opportunities:
1. AI + MCP (Modular Computing Protocol), representative projects: DARK, DARK, SKYAI
Logic: The AI track remains the strongest area in the current rebound, with some leading projects like $VIRTUAL reaching historical highs, attracting significant capital attention.
2. RWA (Real-World Assets), representative projects: ONDO, ONDO, TRU, $PENDLE
Logic: The RWA track benefits from the entry of traditional financial capital and has long-term growth potential, especially for stable income asset protocols.
3. New forces in the BTC ecosystem, representative projects: ODINDOG, ODINDOG, METHAN, $BUTANE
Logic: As the Bitcoin ecosystem (such as runes, Layer2, etc.) gains popularity, new projects may experience explosive growth.
