Today's SOL price trend focuses on the key position of 149 in the 4-hour level, where bulls and bears are competing. This point is the 'watershed' for the short-term trend and needs to be comprehensively assessed from technical aspects, volume coordination, and market sentiment:

Key Technical Logic

- Upward Conditions: If the 4-hour closing price stabilizes above 149, it means breaking through the upper boundary of the recent week's fluctuation range (142-149), shifting the short-term trend to bullish. The upper pressure levels are 153.2 (March high), 157.3 (Q4 2024 resistance), and 159.4 (daily Fibonacci strong resistance). A breakout requires a volume increase of over 20% compared to the average of the last 3 days (over 80,000 SOL) to confirm active bullish funds.

- Retracement Risk: If it falls below 149, the market may return to a downward fluctuation, with support levels at 145.3 (50-day moving average), 142.6 USD (lower boundary of fluctuation), and 140 (psychological level + 200-day moving average). Breaking below 142.6 may trigger panic selling.

Operational Strategy and Risk Control

- Bullish Strategy: After stabilizing above 149, one can lightly go long in the 149.5-150 range, with a target of 153.2, stop loss at 148 (below the 200-day moving average), and position control within 10%.

- Bearish Strategy: After falling below 149, one can lightly short in the 148-148.5 range, with a target of 145.3, stop loss at 150, and position ≤ 5%.

- Range Fluctuation: If the price fluctuates between 145.3 and 149, adopt a high sell low buy strategy (long at 145.3 / short at 149), with each position ≤ 5%, stop loss at 2.

Summary

Today's short-term trend of SOL is determined by the competition around 149. Technical breakthroughs require volume verification, while the funding side should focus on on-chain holding sentiments and changes in contract positions. Macroeconomic factors to be cautious of include the impact of tonight's US core PCE data. Investors should formulate a 'breakout follow-up' strategy around key levels, set strict stop losses, and avoid frequent trading when the trend is unclear. Remember: careful following after trend confirmation is better than blind speculation in ambiguous ranges, and controlling risk is always the first principle of trading.$SOL #SOL走势