1. Russia-Ukraine situation: Short-term safe-haven sentiment is cooling, but long-term uncertainty remains.
Core of the event:
Russia proposed a '72-hour ceasefire from May 8 to 10,' which the US described as 'absurd,' insisting on a 'lasting agreement'; Putin reiterated the willingness for 'unconditional negotiations' but emphasized the need to safeguard Russian interests.
Market signals: Although the ceasefire proposal briefly boosted risk appetite (stock market rebound), significant core demand differences exist between both parties, and actual implementation is questionable. If subsequent negotiations collapse, the geopolitical risk premium may quickly rebound.
Impact on Bitcoin:
Short-term bearish: Easing of safe-haven sentiment may lead to some funds flowing out of Bitcoin and other high-risk assets, shifting towards traditional safe-haven assets (gold, US Treasuries).