Can we enter the market now? I will discuss my views from a macroeconomic perspective.

This article will conduct a systematic analysis from three dimensions: the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, tariff situation, and the process of quantitative tightening, to assess the impact of the current macro environment on the price trends of Ethereum (ETH) and Bitcoin (BTC).

1. Tariff policy has reached its limit, and further increases are limited.

Currently, the United States has implemented high tariffs on major trading partners, especially on goods from China. These tariff measures have led to increased import costs and have pushed domestic inflation levels higher. However, continuing to impose tariffs may exert greater pressure on the U.S. economy itself, including rising consumer costs and compressed corporate profits. Therefore, further increases in tariffs are unlikely to have an impact on the market.

2. Federal Reserve interest rates are at a high level, and the possibility of further increases is low.

As of April 2025, the Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate range is 4.25% to 4.50%. Over the past year, the Federal Reserve has raised rates multiple times in response to high inflation. However, the current rate level is close to historic highs, and I believe that further rate hikes are nearly impossible.

3. Quantitative tightening (QT) is nearing its end, and market expectations have shifted towards easing.

Since 2022, the Federal Reserve has implemented a quantitative tightening policy by reducing its balance sheet to tighten liquidity. However, starting in April 2025, the Federal Reserve has reduced the intensity of QT by about 80%. This means that from the perspective of liquidity contraction, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve further increasing QT is very low. As economic growth slows and inflationary pressures ease, the market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will gradually end QT in the second half of 2025, and there is even a possibility of restarting quantitative easing (QE) policies within the next one to two years.

Conclusion-

In this macro environment, unless there is an extreme black swan event, I personally believe that there is no worse space left.

The macro bearish factors have basically cleared, the Federal Reserve's interest rates are at a high level with very little room for further increases, tariff increases have reached their limit, and quantitative tightening (QT) has also begun to slow significantly.

I have ample reason to believe that the current market is in the bottom area and will only gradually improve in the future.

Do you think the market can get worse now?

This article is merely a personal learning and communication record and does not constitute investment advice. Investment carries risks; please proceed with caution.