During the May Day Golden Week (May 1-5), if retail capital enters the large A-share market, the main players may take the opportunity to manipulate the market, possibly driving it up. If the long positions have floating profits, after taking some profits, hold on to the rest to break even. As long as the support level is not broken, look upwards. If there is no interest rate hike at tomorrow's meeting on May 1, the market may pulse upward.
On the last day of the May 5th holiday, especially in the late night, the main players may take advantage of people's fatigue to launch a surprise attack and crash the market. Sometimes, they might attack as early as May 4th (Sunday night), laying the groundwork for the interest rate meeting two days later. Generally, the market will turn volatile 1-2 days before, and by May 7th, it would start to drop.
Therefore, the bulls next week need to be cautious, maintaining low leverage and light positions. The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on May 8th typically sees the main players retreating 24 hours in advance to observe. Not reducing interest rates in May meets expectations and is not considered bearish, but the probability of a rate cut in June is high, and the market may start to digest the positive expectations for June in May.
Therefore, it is not recommended to short multiple times at the same price level. The longer the stagnation, the more change it will bring. A stop-loss must be set for the last position, and it's safest to place short orders in batches between new highs of 96,600-99,200.
Will there be significant liquidations in the next two days?
Historically, there is a major liquidation approximately every 13 days, with an average liquidation amount of 800-2 billion USD. The most recent significant liquidation was on April 7th, and there has been no fluctuation for 23 days since April 30th. Will there be another major liquidation soon?
In the last 24 hours, a total of 104,849 people globally have been liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of 187 million USD. Pay more attention to risks.
Some things often change, but some things never change, such as human greed in chasing highs and selling lows, and the methods used by market makers to harvest profits.
May market outlook: Analysis of the Alpha track with the most potential for a hundredfold increase.
If the market sees explosive growth in May, the following tracks are most likely to produce excess returns (Alpha) opportunities:
AI + MCP (Modular Computing Protocol), representative projects: DARK, SKYAI.
Logic: The AI track remains the strongest area of rebound currently, with some leading projects like $VIRTUAL reaching historical highs and receiving high attention from funds.
RWA (Real World Assets), representative projects: ONDO, TRU, $PENDLE.
Logic: The RWA track benefits from traditional financial capital entering the market, possessing long-term growth potential, especially for stable income asset protocols.
New forces in the BTC ecosystem, representative projects: ODINDOG, METHAN, $BUTANE.
Logic: As the Bitcoin ecosystem (like RUNE, Layer 2, etc.) heats up, new projects may experience explosive growth.
Investment Strategy: Focus on leaders, seize the AI craze.
Currently, the AI track is performing the strongest. It is recommended to prioritize leading projects such as:
Stable choices: VIRTUAL (has reached a new high, strong trend), AIXBT, AI16Z.
High risk, high reward: COOKIE, TUT, $ACT (high volatility, suitable for aggressive investors).
Market Comparison: The current heat of AI is comparable to the explosion of the metaverse in 2021 (like SAND, MANA, AXS, MAGIC), where some projects doubled in a single day and increased by over five times in a week. If external funds flow heavily into Web3, the AI sector will undoubtedly be the most central narrative entry.
Meme Coins vs. AI: Although Meme coins (like DOGE, SHIB, etc.) have high short-term popularity, AI has more advantages in long-term value narratives and institutional recognition.