HAEADL is the token of the liquid staking protocol Haedal in the Sui ecosystem, confirmed to be listed on Binance Alpha and Bybit spot. Haedal announced the completion of its seed round financing in January, with specific amounts undisclosed. Investors participating in this round include Hashed, Comma3 Ventures, OKX Ventures, Animoca Ventures, Sui Foundation, Flow Traders, Dewhales Capital, Cetus, Scallop, and others.

In addition, Haedal has opened an airdrop query interface and will start token claims today (April 29) at 20:00.

What is the reasonable price for HAEDAL this time?

First, let's look at the tokenomics: HAEDAL's total supply is 1 billion tokens, with an initial circulating supply accounting for 19.5% of the total supply. The total ecosystem incentive distribution is 55%, the liquidity fund accounts for 10%, investors account for 15%, and the team and advisors account for 20%.

Pre-market price

Then let's look at the pre-market prices. Currently, HAEDAL is quoted at 0.3 USDC on Whales.market, while the pre-market PinataBot on Sui quotes 0.1275 USDC, corresponding to a fully diluted market cap of $300 million and $127.5 million, respectively.

I believe the price on Whales.market is not reliable. On the quote order book, the price of 0.3 USDC is a seller's order, while buyer orders are sparse, with the highest quote of 0.15 USDC backed by only 300 USDC in margin.

Observing historical transactions at high prices on Whales.market, we find that the total transaction volume is less than $1,000. Such a transaction volume is insufficient to serve as an effective data reference and is more likely a 'high expectation' created by stakeholders with low costs.

Comparison with similar projects

Returning to rational analysis, what is the fundamental ranking of the Haedal protocol in the Sui ecosystem?


Haedal (LST) ranks fourth in TVL, following Suilend (lending + AMM + LST), NAVI (lending + LST), and Cetus (AMM). It is noteworthy that the TVL of Suilend's liquid staking portion (SpringSui) is also higher than that of Haedal, making Haedal the fourth protocol in the Sui ecosystem by TVL and the second protocol in the LST track by TVL.

As Suilend is the lending protocol with the highest TVL in the Sui ecosystem and a liquid staking LST protocol, the current FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) of the token SEND is only about $72 million. If HAEDAL is valued above $0.1, then either HAEDAL is overvalued or SEND is undervalued.

Conclusion

Based on a comprehensive analysis of HAEDAL's financing background, high premiums on the launch platform, current high attention, pre-market performance, and the actual market share and fundamentals of the Haedal protocol, I believe there is a small probability that HAEDAL will open above $0.1, but this will also be my selling range. In the short term, HAEDAL is likely to trend towards $0.05 or even lower.