90326811947 I have been thinking about a question: if the next trend market comes, what will be its driving force?

1. On the macro level

If the tariff war is the first move, which is tight; then the tax reduction bill is the counter move, which is loose;

Timeline:

1. Congress plans to accelerate legislation after reconvening on April 28, with the goal of passing the bill before the August recess;

2. The deadline for budget reconciliation is September 30, 2025 (end of this fiscal year);

3. Since the debt ceiling may be reached at the end of the second quarter or the beginning of the third quarter of 2025, it may force the bill to be passed earlier in July;

2. Micro technical analysis

1. Let’s make an assumption: the last major adjustment was a horizontal adjustment (March 2024 - October 2024), and the two adjustments of the same level are interleaved; this means that this adjustment may be a vertical adjustment, deep enough, but not lasting so long;

2. 109588 → 74508 is the first part of the entire adjustment; 74508 → now is a rebound from the decline of the first part; after the rebound, there will still be a decline, and the intensity of the decline will be determined by the intensity of the rebound; the script is as shown:

3. Combining macro and micro

With the passage of the tax reduction bill and the implementation of deregulation, it is very likely to become an important driving force for policy development in the market;

And the originally anticipated autumn market will accelerate and begin to sprout from the summer, and may start early with the effects of policy implementation.