$ETH Technical Analysis:

1. The main upward wave of ETH started from March 2020 and ended at the end of 2021, rising from less than $100 to $4800, nearly a 50-fold increase;

2. The current trend can be seen as a large-scale adjustment to this main upward wave, with the first part of the adjustment being from 4800 to 880, the second part from 880 to 4100, and currently, the adjustment is in the third part from 4100;

3. ETH is currently in a process of finding a bottom, and it cannot be confirmed that it has reached the bottom yet. The circles drawn in the chart indicate the moving average structure at the bottom. The 3-day level is relatively large and has a lagging effect on guiding trades. We can observe it at the daily level, as large levels are often resonated from smaller levels; however, we should not look at too small structures as they are less stable.

In addition to analyzing ETH from a technical perspective, we should also consider its intrinsic nature:

1. ETH and BTC are different. BTC has no competitors within the circle; its competitors are gold, high-quality US stocks, and fiat currency;

2. ETH's competitors are public chains within the circle; you have your ETF, and I have mine; you have your staked ETH, and I have mine too; your ETH is decentralized, but no one cares; my ETH is cheaper and faster than yours...

3. The narrative of BTC is risk aversion, hard currency, flipping fiat, national reserves, institutional reserves, etc.;

4. ETH does not have the above narratives, and its narrative still relies on native elements within the circle;

5. Therefore, my view is whether there will be a season for altcoins in the future. I believe that when liquidity is abundant, there will definitely be one; this is determined by human nature and the essence of gambling, and it will not change;

6. However, after sufficient liquidity brings about a season for altcoins, whether ETH can become GREAT AGAIN is something I doubt. The decisive factor is whether the native narratives within the crypto circle will at least partly occur on the E chain, and this is the key #加密市场反弹 #Strategy增持比特币