The recent price movements are actually quite similar to our previous predictions, overall still slowly pushing up within small bullish candles. Why is the movement so slow? It's simple; the main force is deliberately using time to wear down the patience and emotions of retail investors.
Recently, after a rapid rebound from the lows, many people's mindset is still stuck in the range, hesitant to enter the market recklessly at this stage. But when the market continuously rises slowly within this range for a week, the buying sentiment in the market starts to slowly infect those who are hesitant. Once a new high is broken later, those who were previously watching will easily chase at high prices.
However, to be honest, I am not very optimistic that Bitcoin can directly surge to $100,000 or higher in the short term.
Some people compare the current situation to the market during Trump's election, but the essence is different. Back then, there was a huge positive stimulus combined with a significant volume increase. And now? The trading volume hasn't increased significantly, and there are no particularly strong positive news; it's basically relying on unilateral funding support. Although the trading volume has slightly increased recently, it is still relatively weak, and there are fluctuations with bearish candles mixed in. This contrasts completely with the previous situation where prices surged sharply and accelerated upward.
If the main force still wants to replicate the previous rhythm, everyone will see through it at a glance; they certainly won't make it so easy for retail investors to profit. For a significant rise to continue, there must be new heavyweight news to stimulate it, but currently, none is in sight.
Looking at the 4-hour K-line, Bitcoin's performance can still be considered acceptable, but Ethereum's performance is quite mediocre, often showing long upper and lower shadows, indicating poor control by the main force. This situation is mostly due to retail investors holding too much, while the main force has very little left. The main force wants to control the market but is powerless, resulting in particularly awkward price movements. Even if they want to push up, Ethereum finds it difficult to take off quickly.
Overall, the current slowly rising pattern is actually a bearish signal. Because while the price rises, the trading volume shrinks, and the speed of the increase is slowing down, the divergence between volume and price is becoming more obvious. Even without looking at indicators, it's highly likely that the MACD has already started to diverge. This indicates that buying pressure is starting to diminish, and the open contracts are gradually decreasing. In other words, the shorts have almost been squeezed out, and pushing further up could likely just be a trap.
If I were the main force, what would I do?
The current market situation is as follows:
• Many retail investors do not hold Bitcoin at all;
• Old investors are holding a pile of Ethereum;
• New and old investors are still holding a pile of altcoins and are unwilling to cut losses.
Additionally, there are still some people who cut losses at low prices and are now watching from the sidelines, and short contracts haven't been completely cleared out. The main force will certainly take advantage of this situation to maximize profits.
So I speculate that the main force will continue to push higher, but the pace won't be too fast. Bitcoin is likely to surge between $97,000 to $102,000. Near $100,000, the main force may make slight adjustments, but it won't last too long, and shortly after that, there will be a surge in altcoin activity. Ethereum may rise to around $2000, and altcoins could generally increase by 20%-30%.
Some may ask: After the price is pumped up, who will buy altcoins?
In fact, there's no need to worry because most retail investors have lost too much; there are many who have lost 60%-70%, and a 20%-30% increase is simply not enough for them to break even, so many won't sell. At this moment, seeing Bitcoin break $100,000 and altcoins rising by 10% or 20% daily will naturally entice more people to jump in.
When outside funds rush in and market sentiment reaches its peak, the main force will suddenly launch a downward attack. By that time, many people may again fall into deep losses, and their emotions will completely collapse. However, at the moment, this adjustment should not directly break below the previous major bottom, as the upward cycle has been too short, and the main force hasn't accumulated enough at low levels, lacking the foundation for sustained upward movement.
In the short term, tonight's US stock market opening may bring some volatility, but the overall trend should still be to clear out the short stop-losses around $95,700. One thing to note: if Bitcoin makes a new high but without significant volume, or if there are long upper shadows or bearish candles, then caution is warranted, and it may be wise to consider gradually reducing positions to lock in profits. At such high levels, even if you sell early, the risk-reward ratio is still favorable.
Regarding Ethereum, there may still be a small rise in the short term, but the upper limit won't be too high; $1900-$1950 is a fairly reasonable target, with very little chance of reaching over $2500 because the cost for the main force to push it up is too high, and selling pressure will become noticeably heavier.
As for altcoins, although there may be a nice short-term increase, I still advise everyone to reduce their positions at highs and not to get carried away chasing highs in this enticing market.