1. Event Overview
On April 26, 2025, multiple severe explosions occurred near Shahid Rajaee Port in Hormozgan Province, southern Iran, with the explosion center located in the hazardous materials and chemicals container area.
According to reports from the Iranian Red Crescent Society, at least 28 people died and over 1,000 were injured; additionally, three Chinese citizens were lightly injured and have received medical treatment.
Preliminary investigations suspect that the explosion is related to improperly stored missile solid fuels (such as ammonium perchlorate); Iran's Ministry of Defense denies the presence of military materials at the explosion site.
Some Iranian lawmakers and analysts accuse this of being a deliberate attack orchestrated by Israel, aimed at sabotaging the U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiation process.
2. International Reactions and Geopolitical Games
1. Discrepancies between the U.S. and Israel
U.S. Attitude: Although the Trump administration has suspended direct military strikes against Iran, it has deployed several B-2 stealth strategic bombers to Diego Garcia Base in the Indian Ocean to demonstrate a tough deterrence against Iran.
Israeli Position: Israel, through lobbying U.S. officials and public opinion, calls for more stringent sanctions and military pressure on Iran; reportedly, if the U.S. ultimately resorts to military action, Israel will play a major role.
Troop Deployment: The U.S. announced simultaneously to increase the deployment of F-35 fighter jets, Predator drones, and Patriot air defense systems to the Middle East, extending the stay of two aircraft carrier strike groups in the region to coordinate operations in Yemen and the Persian Gulf.
2. Deepening Cooperation between Russia and Iran
Treaty Substantialization: On January 17, 2025, Russia and Iran signed a 20-year Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty, which was approved by the Russian Duma on April 8, marking a further consolidation of the political and military alliance between the two countries.
Energy and Nuclear Support: Russia has agreed to supply Iran with 55 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually and provide financing for the construction of Iran's first new nuclear power plant; the two countries serve as diplomatic backers for each other on the international stage.
3. Regional Security and Economic Impact
Trade and Shipping Disruption: Shahid Rajaee Port handles 85–90% of Iran's container throughput, and the explosions led to the port being forced to halt operations. A large number of goods had to be rerouted to smaller ports like Chabahar, with shipping times extended by 7–10 days and transportation costs significantly rising.
Oil Prices and Market Sentiment: Although Iran's oil infrastructure has not been significantly damaged, market risk aversion has sharply intensified, leading to a rebound in international oil prices during the day's trading, helping to support futures prices.
Supply Chain Fluctuations: Some shipping companies have begun to adjust their routes through the Strait of Hormuz to avoid potential risks, putting short-term pressure on the global supply chain.
4. Negotiation Prospects and Future Risks
Core Discrepancies in Nuclear Negotiations: There are fundamental differences between the U.S. and Iran regarding Iran's retention of low-enriched uranium enrichment capabilities and the scope of sanctions relief. The latest round of talks held in Oman showed preliminary progress but failed to reach a consensus on 'uranium enrichment limits.'
External Support: Russia openly supports a framework for direct dialogue, calling on all parties to resolve disputes through diplomatic means, and warns that any military strike would violate international law.
Possibility of Resuming 'Maximum Pressure': If negotiations ultimately break down, the Trump administration has made it clear that it will not rule out the resumption of the 'maximum pressure' policy against Iran, including reimposing sanctions and considering military options.
Overall Assessment: The Abbas Port explosion incident has intensified tensions in the Middle East, exposing the discrepancies in U.S.-Israeli strategies towards Iran and the deepening Iran-Russia alliance. In the short term, markets and shipping may continue to be under pressure; in the long term, if nuclear negotiations struggle to make breakthroughs, the U.S.-Iran tug-of-war and military deterrence may become the norm, with risks remaining high for all parties.