Policy Background
- In March, Trump signed an executive order requiring the U.S. Treasury to submit a detailed report within 60 days on the feasibility of establishing a national Bitcoin reserve, deciding whether to include Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, involving the use of tariff revenue and adjusting gold reserves to purchase Bitcoin.
- The Trump administration has significantly shifted its stance on cryptocurrency, gaining industry support in the election, promising regulatory easing and pushing for the U.S. to become a 'Bitcoin superpower,' with policy focuses including:
1. Establishing Strategic Reserves: Plans to include Bitcoin, Ethereum, and others in national reserves, with the federal government already holding approximately 200,000 Bitcoins (worth $15.6 billion), and potentially expanding reserves through asset seizures or government purchases in the future.
2. Regulatory Easing: Dismiss the hardline SEC Chairman Gensler and appoint supporter Paul Atkins to take over, revoking multiple restrictive regulations.
3. Crackdown on Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC): Explicitly prohibit the issuance or use of CBDCs within and outside the United States, supporting private digital currency innovation.
Dual Impact on the Market
Positive Aspects
- If the report signals positivity, the strategic reserve plan could enhance Bitcoin's status as 'digital gold,' attracting more institutional investors and driving prices further up.
Risks and Uncertainties
- The market previously experienced price fluctuations due to misinformation about a 'ban'; currently, details on reserve funding sources and implementation are unclear, and regulatory uncertainty may trigger short-term price volatility; if policy measures fall short of expectations, a correction may occur.
Investor Focus Points
Need to closely monitor the content of the U.S. Treasury report on May 5 and subsequent legislative progress, be wary of short-term sentiment-driven price fluctuations, and rationally assess the actual impact of policy implementation.