The overall trend of BTC remains bullish, moving through the weekly divergence segment and the right side of the monthly M head, with a 5-wave upward movement on the daily chart. Next month is the altcoin season, specific details can be found in the pinned article;
The daily trend is currently transitioning from wave 1 to wave 2 during the correction phase. BTC entered wave 2 after not making a new high, corresponding to a small 3-wave or 5-wave correction on the 4-hour chart. In terms of time, the 4-hour chart requires at least 3 candles, with a rebound expected to last at least until after 4 PM;
This morning, it broke below 94,000 down to the lower band, and after being oversold on the 4-hour SKDJ, it rebounded, completing a small wave 2 rebound. If it does not break the new high, it will continue with a 3-wave or 5-wave downward pattern; if it breaks the new high, it will return to a correction wave;
The range of 95,500-98,000 for BTC is a heavy resistance zone from the previous 2 months, making a direct breakout quite difficult, so it still feels that the daily small trend will pull back to 85,000 before moving up again;
On the weekly chart, the morning closing produced a large bullish candle above the middle track, showing an upward inertia, which also aligns with the rebound of wave 2 on the 4-hour chart. The weekly SKDJ is quite strong, and the rebound is expected to last 1-2 days; the middle track of the weekly and the monthly 5-month moving average are both pointing down, suggesting a better chance of pulling back before rising again. In terms of timing, the condition of the monthly closing on the morning of the 1st is crucial to see if it can stand above the 5-month moving average;
If the daily wave 2 correction occurs, the bottom in terms of time may be around the interest rate decision on the 8th of next month, which is unlikely to cut interest rates, followed by an accelerated drop and a significant rebound probability;
Regarding altcoins, the decline over the past few months has been too large, and currently, they exhibit some independence. Most are controlled by institutions, with holdings and market values close to or exceeding, resulting in smaller declines and stronger rebounds;
Unless there is a significant decline or sharp drop in the overall market, they generally do not fall much, which was not seriously considered. Additionally, if we look at the MACD energy bars, without significant reduction in volume divergence, it may not yet be the peak, providing opportunities to continue breaking out of divergence;
