Currently, Powell's term will end in May 2026, and discussions about potential successors have gradually intensified.
Kevin Walsh is seen as a leading candidate to succeed current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, and his prospects are influenced by various factors.

✅ Favorable Factors

  • Favor from the Trump Administration


    It has been reported that Trump considered appointing Walsh as Secretary of the Treasury and nominating him as Chairman of the Federal Reserve after Powell's term ends.

  • Criticism of Federal Reserve Policies and Reform Proposals


    Walsh has publicly criticized the Federal Reserve's policies in recent years, arguing that they have been overly expansive and deviated from core responsibilities, leading to systemic errors. He advocates that the Federal Reserve should focus on controlling inflation and maintaining financial stability, avoiding involvement in non-traditional areas like climate change.

  • Rich Policy and Market Experience


    Walsh served as a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006 to 2011, during which he participated in addressing the 2008 financial crisis. He has also worked at the White House National Economic Council and has close ties to Wall Street, providing him with extensive policy and market experience.

⚠️ Potential Obstacles

  • Challenges of Senate Confirmation


    Although Trump may support Walsh, his appointment still requires Senate confirmation. Given Walsh's emphasis on the independence of the Federal Reserve and his criticism of current policies, it may raise questions among some lawmakers, increasing the difficulty of confirmation.

  • Concerns about Political Interference in the Market


    Trump has publicly criticized Powell and even considered removing him from office early, raising concerns in the market about the independence of the Federal Reserve. If Walsh is seen as a tool for political interference, it may further undermine market confidence.

  • Uncertainty in Trump's Decision-Making


    Trump has a history of frequent changes in personnel appointments; even if Walsh is currently seen as a leading candidate, the final choice may still change.

Comprehensive Assessment

Overall, Walsh has a higher likelihood of becoming the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve, especially with the support of the Trump administration. However, the Senate confirmation process, market concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, and uncertainty in Trump's decision-making are all major challenges he faces.

If Kevin Walsh can effectively balance political support with maintaining the independence of the Federal Reserve and gain sufficient support in the Senate, his chances of becoming the Chairman of the Federal Reserve will further increase.