Can $SOL still be heavily held for the long term???

In the past three years, apart from BTC, SOL has been one of the hottest stars in the crypto world. I sold my SOL at $280 and later bought back some around $120.

In my opinion, the two best times to invest in SOL were right after the FTX collapse at the end of 2022, when the price dropped to $8-20. Although SOL experienced frequent outages and was only moderately decentralized, with FTX being a major concern, from a technical perspective, it found a good balance between speed, cost, and decentralization, making it a stage worth taking risks.

Another good opportunity was in mid-2024, when the meme coin craze just started, and Pump.fun burst onto the scene, directly boosting SOL's popularity.

These two points were the best times to invest in SOL.

As for the current SOL, I personally feel it is no longer an ideal investment target. Although I occasionally play short-term trades, I have never heavily invested for the long term.

Why?

Because SOL has already realized most of its expectations: high staking rates, high staking interest, high inflation rates, and a strong correlation with the U.S. market.

The project that propelled it was Pump.fun, which is actually just a project with a good concept but lacks a real competitive moat, and BSC and Base can learn quickly from it.

Where can SOL go in the future?

One path is to continue to strengthen its position in DeFi, eating into ETH's user base;

The other is the emergence of killer applications (like full-chain games).

But both paths are challenging.

I personally do not have much faith in DeFi; the underlying logic is hard for me to believe; and in terms of chain games, the performance of the Sui chain may even have an advantage over SOL.

So, to summarize:

SOL is currently at a crossroads; it can either break through itself and go further or reach its peak, drawing reference from ETH in this bull market.

I personally will not heavily invest, nor will I hold SOL for the long term.