Why focus on the bulls rather than being fixated on clearing the bears? Looking at the futures market from another perspective:
Price movement can be divided into fluctuations and trends. Trend markets have inertia (like a car going down a long slope), but they do not decline linearly; instead, they fluctuate intermittently.
When confirming a bullish trend, one should prioritize attention to "bearish liquidity" (i.e., the downhill segments ahead).
Fluctuations merely indicate entering a flat section; if there is still a downhill (bearish liquidity) ahead, one must judge in the direction of the trend until prices pause and reverse, then turn to analyze liquidity in the opposite direction.
Taking the current situation as an example: breaking below 91000 requires analyzing the bullish liquidity liquidation zone to determine if the rebound is a reversal; breaking below 89000 confirms a trend reversal (due to the steep slope of a large amount of bullish liquidity below).
When first entering the market, I misjudged: believing all liquidity must be liquidated, ignoring the trend structure, which led to exiting the Trump election rally too early — although the bullish liquidity at 75000 was eventually liquidated after 150 days, I missed the entire bullish rally in between.
Now following the framework of "trend structure as primary, liquidity as secondary": first, use the ASR-VC 4-hour trend channel to judge whether the trend continues and whether the structure is broken, then combine liquidity to predict the price range and its impact on the trend. If there are potential changes, update the analysis; if there are no obvious signals (like long-term shrinking fluctuations), stay on the sidelines.
The market's "boring" dormant period often brews the next round of "interesting" rallies.
