Currently, the price increase is driven by emotions affecting BTC prices, and BTC's price emotions influence the prices of altcoins. It is advisable to use the BTC chip distribution chart data in conjunction with emotional pricing to determine the pressure points of Bitcoin. On a macro level, we are currently facing macroeconomic tightening, still reducing the balance sheet, with high interest rates of 4.5, which is completely different from 2021 (0-0.25 low interest rates, QE). Against this backdrop, there are no signals for a reversal, as ultimately, there is still a lack of money in the market, and only institutions like ETFs are supporting the market, without any hot topics to stimulate funds within the industry, including buying power from both small and large whales.
There is basically no reduction in interest rates in April and May; the only thing that can sway market prices is emotion. When emotions are positive, prices rise; when emotions are negative, prices drop. This is the situation we are currently facing. What can influence emotions are tariffs, macro data, economic data, and speeches from figures like Trump and Powell. Therefore, it is crucial for us to pay more attention to the transformation of emotions at this time.
Regarding market prices, BTC is currently in the range of 94,000-95,000, with resistance above at 96,500-97,500 and support below at 93,000-92,000. Basically, we are waiting for new emotional factors to maintain volatility and choose a direction. At this time, it is advisable to reduce positions if there are some profits. Continuing to hold means betting on the emotional trend improving in the market, which is a personal choice, as we are not currently in a reversal phase. The rebound trend can easily become a roller coaster. In terms of positions, just avoid heavy positions. If you are willing to bet on emotions continuing to improve, you can hold on; if you see a good opportunity, you might consider reducing your position slightly.