In the current market environment, it is crucial to avoid an emotional trading mentality of 'buying when prices rise and selling when prices fall.' This is because the overall situation still belongs to a range-bound market without a clear trend.
When making decisions, one must not only refer to short-term technical trends but also extend the time frame to analyze the weekly and daily structures of the past two to three years, identifying key positions for decision-making.
From a macro perspective, uncertainty remains high. For bulls, have the tariff negotiations been truly finalized? What chain reactions will tariff changes bring to inflation, employment, and consumption in the second half of the year? These unresolved questions make blind optimism unsuitable.
For bears, the same caution applies. Be wary of sudden changes in macro conditions, such as the 'art of trading' event, or Navarro's unexpected exit and Trump’s sudden change in attitude; any of these could trigger an emotional reversal.
Currently, the 'Trump Put' has become a market consensus, but it is important to note that the time value (theta) of this protective umbrella is rapidly decaying.
In response to this round of increases, starting this week, I am implementing a dual strategy of short-term buying at the close and long-term positioning with LEAP Puts.
Theoretically, there may still be one last rebound opportunity in the market. After completing this wave, I will gradually exit rebound trades and patiently await the emergence of a new clear trend.