crypto李白

May 16 Market Highlights

Market Overview

Bitcoin prices have weakened, leading to a general decline in altcoins. FTX plans to initiate debt repayment on May 30, which may affect the flow of funds. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks have become more volatile, increasing market risk aversion.

Focus Areas

Blockchain Games: The chain transformation project Nxpc of "MapleStory" has garnered attention, with the official solo investment resulting in a relatively concentrated chip distribution. However, gold farming profits have not met expectations, and future potential remains to be observed.

Meme Coins: Startup has risen due to endorsements from KOLs, while Useless has benefited from the holdings of the Bonk ecosystem founder, showing a significant risk of speculation.

New Projects: The TGE project of BN Wallet, Alaya AI, has officially launched, focusing on AI data labeling, but its performance is still to be evaluated.

Risks: Moodeng and Launchcoin have experienced sharp declines, which may trigger smart money withdrawals, requiring caution regarding potential market reversals.

BTC/ETH Market

Bitcoin and Ethereum maintained a volatile consolidation yesterday, with the daily line showing overbought conditions, and are expected to consolidate sideways in the short term.

BTC Support Level: 102500 - 103000, Resistance Level: 105000 - 106000;

ETH Support Level: 2450 - 2500, Resistance Level: 2650 - 2700, suitable for light position entry.

Last night, Bitcoin showed oversold conditions on the 4-hour chart, coinciding with previous lows and the EMA55 support level, leading to a slight rebound in the market.

I participated at this level, but I only see it as a short-term opportunity.

For a million-level position, I believe the price has not reached the ideal level yet. My goal is to wait for it to pull back near the EMA100, and then assess the market conditions to determine if there are opportunities with a higher risk-reward ratio.

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At the beginning of the year, various KOL recommendations flooded in, and many people thought it was a rare opportunity, lowering their guard and decisively jumping into the market. As a result, many incurred losses and ran away, which was truly shocking. In the end, the percentage of those who made money was less than 30%.

Recently, with the involvement of celebrities and private placements from platforms, KOLs have actively supported and jointly promoted industry development with their resources and confidence in the circle. However, when the market opened, it plummeted, leaving many without even a chance to retreat, once again being toyed with by the market.

In the cryptocurrency world, the rule for making money is not the traditional 80/20 rule, but rather the rule of 2% and 98%.

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Recently, the bearish sentiment towards SIREN has been growing stronger among everyone, and seeing this change makes me a bit uneasy.

The project itself is strong, but this sudden shift in sentiment makes me feel somewhat shaken. I have already withdrawn my principal, and now I also plan to pull out a portion of my profits.

If this round does not see a proper pullback, I will not be adding to my position again.

Reflecting on some of my past operations, many projects that were originally set to yield huge profits ended up losing money mainly due to adding to positions during pullbacks in the midst of rapid price increases.

For example, the cost of Dogecoin was 0.07. When it rose to 0.48, I failed to take profits in time, and when it pulled back to 0.3, I added to my position. As a result, it dropped to 0.2 and I added again, ultimately falling to 0.1 where I didn't add any further.

This kind of repeated operation ultimately led to what could have been a 7-fold profit, ending up nearly in a loss instead. This is a classic mistake caused by a lack of firm conviction.

Market trends cannot be accurately predicted by anyone; real trading lies in making a rough judgment and formulating a trading plan that has execution power and high fault tolerance.

In the trading plan, subjective emotional interference should be minimized, and the execution power of the plan should be enhanced (for example, in areas such as position management, profit-taking, and stop-loss).

Position size should match the level of trading: when trading at a larger level, positions can be appropriately increased; whereas, for smaller level trading, positions should remain cautious.

For beginners or those who have not yet achieved significant profits in the market, it is recommended to choose larger level trades, as larger level trades have higher certainty, while smaller level trades are relatively uncertain.

Trading is a continuous process of practice that requires repeated review and backtesting of each operation. Avoid repeating mistakes and improve the precision of operations; when you are able to identify and avoid past mistakes, it means you have overcome human weaknesses in practice, which also represents your progress.

Short-term speculation and quick profits are ultimately difficult to sustain; only a solid trading strategy can lead to longer-term success in the market.

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Today it seems that the decline of altcoins is generally greater than the pullback of BTC and ETH.

I hope yesterday was our peak, and we won't see those daily oscillations and declines again. But this is just a wish; those who are out of the market certainly hope for a downturn, while we remain rational.

It's not about blindly being bullish when prices rise and being bearish when they fall. At least during the bottom phase, I have always encouraged everyone to maintain confidence and reminded everyone not to panic sell, but to stick to their positions. But how many people can hold on until the end? Many might either panic sell during the downturn or be swayed by emotions; there are also some so-called influencers who disappear when the market is bad, only to reappear when things get better. As an old follower said: "When the market takes off, all kinds of 'monsters and demons' start showing off their gains, claiming this wave is this and that."

But how many people, like me, have been persistent, recharging everyone and holding onto their beliefs? When the market reaches our predetermined target, we will clear our positions and rest, not fantasizing about the future market; maintaining a clear-headed rationality is the most important thing.

Not being blindly optimistic when prices rise, nor panicking when they fall, accepting the reality of the market is the prudent attitude.

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Can Bitcoin hit 110,000?

Tonight's economic data may dominate market trends: important economic indicators such as CPI and PPI have a significant impact on the market.

Previous economic data met expectations, which led to a reversal in the market. Currently, both bulls and bears are waiting for new market signals.

Personal opinion: In the short term, the market may enter a consolidation range, and without clear news catalysts, it will be difficult for Bitcoin to break the 110,000 mark.

Considering that early holders may choose to sell at this price level, this is also a factor to watch.

Technical analysis: From the daily chart, bearish forces slightly outweigh bullish ones, and in the short term, it may pull back to the 102,500-100,800 range before rebounding again. If the price does not fall below the 100,000 mark, a low-buy strategy can be considered; if it falls below 100,000, caution should be taken for the risk of an M-top forming on the 4-hour chart.

#币安Alpha上新 #CPI数据来袭 #贸易战缓和

Today, I sincerely hope that the decline of altcoins can exceed that of BTC and ETH. It would be best if yesterday was the short-term high point, and let's avoid that sluggish decline. Although those who are in cash are looking forward to a market downturn, I still prefer rational analysis.

From the bottom to now, faith is not just something to be spoken; during the declines, I held on without panic and continued to buy more to support myself. There are not many people who have been able to persist until today. Some cut their losses halfway, some completely turned bearish, and some bloggers simply disappeared.

Now that the market has rebounded, everyone has come out again, starting to share their "achievements" and summaries, as if they have always been around.

As the veteran fans say, once the market heats up, all kinds of people start to appear. But I am still the one who insists on sharing every day, reminding everyone.

When we reach the expected target position, I will clear out and take a break, not fantasizing about how much more space the market will have. Staying clear-headed is the most important thing.

Do not get carried away when it rises, and do not panic when it falls; that is the attitude we should have.

#代币发射平台竞争加剧 #币安Alpha上新 #CPI数据来袭

Many people are complaining that there are no opportunities on BSC, but to be honest, over the past year, there have actually been quite a few opportunities, and most of them are pretty good. However, the key is still to avoid chasing highs, stay rational, and not be greedy.

For example, KOMA rose from 0.005 to 0.2, an increase of 40 times.

Looking at some recent opportunities, such as TST, MUBARAK, TUT, and even projects like Donkey and Gorilla, they've all provided at least 5 times returns.

One obvious advantage of BSC is the concentration of hotspots and high activity, so during the bottom phase, you can almost capture this information in real-time.

As long as you can double your investment, you can sell in time and basically achieve 100% profit. Over the past few months, there have been quite a few opportunities; besides SOL, BSC is also quite worth paying attention to.

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Four Major Driving Factors for Ethereum to Surge to $3000

Recently, the price of Ethereum has risen by 5.63%, returning to the $2500 level. Whether it can break through $3000 is mainly influenced by the following four factors:

Capital Flow and Market Dynamics: Despite traditional investors' selling leading to a net outflow of $10.83 million in Ethereum spot ETF funds, the continuous accumulation by institutional investors has injected significant upward momentum into the market. If ETF capital inflow turns positive, it will provide strong support for price increases.

Supply and Demand Imbalance: Currently, there are approximately 19.1 million Ethereum reserves on exchanges, which has alleviated selling pressure. At the same time, the expansion of the DeFi and NFT ecosystems has stimulated demand for ETH, and the changes in supply and demand dynamics provide support for the rise in Ethereum prices.

Breakthrough of Key Price Levels: When Ethereum broke through the key price level of $2700, market bullish sentiment increased. The conversion of support and resistance at this price level will directly affect market confidence and capital flow, playing a crucial role in price trends.

Implementation of Technological Progress: The Pectra upgrade has enhanced the performance of the Ethereum network, but the conversion of this technological advantage still requires the popularization of ecological applications and user growth. If this conversion is successful, technological innovation will become an important factor driving the rise in Ethereum prices.

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Floki Inu (FLOKI) price is around $0.000113. From a technical and value potential analysis, there are some layout opportunities at this price level.

From the perspective of potential profit space, if market sentiment improves and the project's fundamentals continue to be favorable, $0.00015 can be seen as a short-term target price; while the $0.0001 range is considered relatively undervalued. If one can enter at this price level, it may provide a better cost advantage,
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After the release of the U.S. April CPI data on May 13, the actual values were lower than market expectations, significantly strengthening market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates within the year.

With the slowdown of the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT) process, the inflow of fiscal funds during the tax season, and the continuous outflow of money market fund assets from reverse repurchase agreements (RRP), macro liquidity has shown a phase of easing, leading to a significant inflow of funds into the crypto market, driving a strong rebound in mainstream crypto assets such as BTC, ETH, and SOL.

From the market structure perspective, the participation of institutional investors continues to rise.

Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) remains high, currently accounting for 3.4% of the total circulating supply, indicating strong willingness of institutional funds to hold positions.

At the same time, the activity in the ETH and SOL derivatives markets has also rebounded, significantly improving liquidity.

It is worth noting that analyst Chloe pointed out that current short-term holders of BTC and ETH are generally in a high-profit state, and the leverage positions in the derivatives market are highly concentrated.

Once prices touch key technical support or resistance levels, it may trigger a massive profit-taking and forced liquidation chain reaction, exacerbating short-term volatility risks in the market.

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Since the recommendation, the price of the AXS token has risen nearly 30%, reaching the previously set target price.

Considering the current market environment, it is recommended that investors retain 30%-50% of their positions to capture potential higher returns.

The current strength of the overall market has created favorable conditions for small and mid-cap cryptocurrencies, coupled with yesterday's CPI data releasing positive signals, which has increased market risk appetite.

It is worth noting that with the release of today's PPI data, the market may enter a brief consolidation window, during which small cryptocurrencies may welcome new rotation opportunities.

#代币发射平台竞争加剧 #CPI数据来袭 #加密圆桌会议要点

As the market focus continues to shift, XRP has quietly achieved double-digit gains recently, while Dogecoin (DOGE), a flagship asset in the meme coin sector, unexpectedly finds itself on the fringes of public opinion.

Once a leading force in the meme coin craze, DOGE has always held an important position in the crypto ecosystem thanks to its large community base and market consensus.

Historical data shows that during market recovery cycles, DOGE often demonstrates strong explosive potential, not only quickly capturing market sentiment but also frequently leading the sector with unexpected gains.

As market bullish sentiment gradually warms up, this temporarily undervalued veteran meme coin may have entered a stage of accumulation, and if triggered by key catalysts, its potential gains could exceed 50%, potentially reviving its past leading performance.

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From the perspective of technical analysis at the daily level, the current SOL price has not yet confirmed an effective breakthrough of the key resistance zone. This level can serve as a reference point for reducing positions or taking profits in the short term.

If the subsequent daily closing price can firmly stay above the key resistance level, based on Fibonacci extension and pattern measurement targets, the next upward target for SOL may point to the key psychological level around 220 dollars.

It is essential to pay close attention to the volume-price relationship and the effectiveness of the moving average system as confirmation of the sustainability of the breakthrough.

#CPI数据来袭 #加密圆桌会议要点 #Strategy增持比特币

Market Outlook Under Fed Rate Cut Expectations: Key Nodes and Asset Reactions

The current market shows divergence in expectations regarding the timing of the Fed's rate cuts.

The mainstream view suggests that the likelihood of starting a rate cut cycle in September 2025 is the highest; JPMorgan also posits that there may be a rate cut window in June or July.

However, from the perspective of the market's implied probabilities, the expectations for a June rate cut are relatively weak, with futures market data showing its probability slightly above 20%. Even if a rate cut occurs, the expected single cut is anticipated to be 25 basis points.

Considering the Fed's meeting schedule, August is a policy window period, providing a critical buffer for the market.

Whether the rate cut actually happens in July or September, Bitcoin, as a forward-looking asset, often prices in expectations in advance — the current upward trend in the market has partially reflected the influx of funds due to rate cut expectations.

It is worth noting that October will become a key observation window.

Historical experience shows that in the early stages of a shift in monetary policy, asset prices usually hit bottom after the first rate cut is realized, and then, with the gradual release of liquidity, a new upward cycle begins.

SXT technology has released a rebound signal, or is welcoming a wave of layout opportunities. From a technical analysis perspective, SXT has formed a golden cross pattern of the SKDJ indicator in the bottom area of the four-hour K-line chart.

Combining with the previous continuous sideways consolidation trend characteristics, the current technical structure

may already possess the momentum for an upward breakout, providing potential opportunities for short-term bullish strategies.

Strategy suggestion: Positions can be laid out around the current price of 0.141 USD, with a target price set in the 0.175 USD range to seize the potential technical rebound market.

Care should be taken to control position risk and adjust holding strategies flexibly in conjunction with market dynamics.

#加密圆桌会议要点 #Strategy增持比特币 #贸易战缓和

Major data is coming tonight! How will the US April CPI stir the cryptocurrency and stock markets? The US April CPI data will be revealed tonight, and this key indicator will directly influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations: if the data is favorable, the probability of starting an interest rate cut cycle in July will significantly increase; conversely, it may delay the market's expectations for a shift in monetary policy. Currently, the mainstream view in the market is that the Federal Reserve may take its first step towards cutting interest rates in July.

Due to the uncertainty before the data release, US stocks opened high last night but quickly fell back, and the cryptocurrency market faced pressure, resulting in a significant decline. It is worth noting that historical data shows that whenever positive news related to Trump is released, cryptocurrency prices often experience a deep correction, adding more variables to tonight's market trend.

Currently, the overall cryptocurrency market is showing a downward trend, with short-term volatility significantly increasing and operational risks rising, suggesting that investors maintain a cautious wait-and-see attitude.

In terms of strategy, blindly short-selling is not recommended; it is better to wait for a technical price rebound and then capture short-selling opportunities in high resistance zones to reduce trading risks.

Bitcoin Trading Strategy: Robust Entry Logic Based on Technical Indicators In Bitcoin (BTC) trading, it is recommended to adopt a trend-following strategy.

Specifically, when an oversold signal appears on the four-hour chart, and the price touches the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 50 or EMA 100 forming effective support, one may consider entering a long position.

This strategy emphasizes being guided by objective technical signals, avoiding subjective speculation on the bottom or premature market entry, reducing trading risks by waiting for signal confirmation, and ensuring a relatively safe entry time after the trend is established.

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Analysis of Cryptocurrency Market Trends: Opportunities and Risks in the Second Wave of Bull Market Based on the current market structure, the author maintains an optimistic judgment for the future market.

After experiencing a deep correction and long-term consolidation, many cryptocurrency assets have reached temporary lows. If the main funds only quickly cash out through short-term price surges, it will be difficult to maximize profits.

Although the market environment differs from history, the cyclical patterns still hold reference value — referring to past bull market trajectories, the second wave of increases often has more explosive potential, as main funds may create a wealth effect through sustained price rises, attracting retail investors to chase the market.

It is worth noting that when market sentiment is overly heated, risks are often hidden. Investors need to establish a sound risk management mechanism to avoid blindly following trends and chasing highs, adhering to the principle of "not being greedy for tail-end markets." By tracking key signals such as market sentiment indicators and capital flows, investors can timely take profits and exit before main funds complete their layouts, thereby achieving stable returns in the wave of a bull market.

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