The Fed balance was reduced by $183 million in one week!

Waller, chairman of the Fed:

- PCE inflation in March: core - 2.3%, overall - 2.7%.

- Tariffs can quickly lead to an increase in unemployment.

- There is a risk of being late with the Fed reaction if you rely only on the data.

- A rate decrease is possible with an increase in unemployment.

- Tariffs will have a temporary impact on prices, but a slowdown in demand can smooth out the inflation effect.

Daly, the chairman of the Fed:

- The economy is generally healthy, but some sectors are slowing down.

- I support a gradual and careful decrease in the rate.

- The current policy is restrictive and effective, with inflationary expectations around 2%.

- The neutral rate may be higher than before, and the Fed must take this into account.

- The balance can be reduced, but still far from the "sufficient" level of reserves.

GULSBI, FRS chairman:

- Short-term inflationary expectations have grown, but the key is to maintain long-term stability.

- The influence of duties on macroeconomics can be modest, but it is too early to draw conclusions.

- The Fed must wait and observe.

- The rate will be lower in 12-18 months.

- Intervention in the DCT can increase inflation.

Kugler, Fed:

- The pace of inflation has decreased, but still at 2% or even higher.

- Public trust and inflation expectations are still stable.

Hammak, FRS chairman:

- The Fed must be patient, too early for action in May.

- Huge uncertainty makes businesses slow down investment.

- The Fed's interventions - only with real shocks, now a very high bar.

Market expectations (Fed rate):

- May 7: Pause.

- June 18: Decrease by 25 b.p. to 4.00-4.25%.

- July 30: Reduced by 25 b.p. to 3.75-4.00%.

- September 17: Pause.

- October 29: Decrease by 25 b.p. to 3.50-3.75%.

- December 10: Decrease by 25 b.p. to 3.25-3.50%.

- January 28: Pause. #BTC