With the resurgence of Donald Trump's tariff policies in early 2025, following his new inauguration, global markets (including crypto) have reacted with considerable uncertainty. In recent weeks, the US government announced that most countries would see their tariffs reduced to 10%, while those for China remain above 100%. This decision has sparked fears of targeted trade tensions and an impact on the global economy.
This volatility impacts the cryptocurrency world. The price of Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a significant drop when the new tariff scheme became known, although, remarkably, there was renewed interest in BTC as a safe haven from the potential devaluation of the dollar.
In this article, we delve into how the current scenario, marked by different tariffs for China (more than 100%) and 10% for other countries, can influence the prices of BTC and altcoins, and at what point Bitcoin reaffirms itself as "digital gold" in times of trade uncertainty.
Trade war and crypto market reaction
The Trump administration's recent announcements, which reduced tariffs to 10% for most countries—except for China, which continues to impose tariffs above 100%—have raised fears that Washington is escalating its dispute with Beijing while signaling easing tensions with other partners. This scenario introduces imbalances into global production chains and strains traditional financial markets.
Without providing exact figures for each country (since tariffs can change rapidly), a pattern emerges: when a government imposes such asymmetric barriers, risks of inflation arise, distortions in global trade, and a subsequent search for assets considered neutral and safe from any nation's monetary policy. At that point, Bitcoin often re-emerges as an attractive alternative.
Historically, unilateral trade policies and geopolitical tensions have led investors to seek decentralized assets or those that aren't dependent on a single government. Gold has always been a safe haven in this context, but for years, Bitcoin has been gaining followers who consider it a first-class digital safe haven.
Why does Bitcoin strengthen in times of stress?
In times of uncertainty—whether commercial, macroeconomic, or political—interest in Bitcoin tends to increase as it is viewed as an asset that stands apart from central bank measures. This is due to several factors:
Decentralization: Bitcoin isn't controlled by a central bank, nor can it "print" more units. Its hard cap of 21 million BTC makes it resistant to monetary expansions that devalue traditional currencies.
Predictable Monetary Policy: BTC halvings (every 210,000 blocks) periodically curtail the issuance of new coins, strengthening scarcity. This contrasts with banknotes, which a government can issue without restrictions.
Global Liquidity: BTC can be moved across national borders without intermediaries, making it useful for investors seeking protection from capital controls or exchange rate volatility.
Narrative of autonomy: For many, Bitcoin is the antithesis of the centralized financial system. In times of trade tensions, when there are fears of monetary manipulation, its image of independence attracts investment flows.
Now, with tariffs at 10% for most, but over 100% for China, there are fears that other countries will also toughen their stance or retaliate, leading to a climate of financial instability where BTC once again emerges as a hedging instrument.
Bitcoin “digital gold” and comparisons with gold
The comparison with gold has become almost inevitable. Both are scarce assets that tend to rise in the midst of crises and have a low correlation with stocks or bonds. The main difference in favor of Bitcoin is its digital format and global mobility, which makes it easy to transfer without the need for physical custody or transportation logistics.
If Trump continues to impose tariffs on China well above 100% and on other countries by 10%, the dollar could suffer as a benchmark currency, or at least see its volatility increase. When uncertainty about the dollar increases, Bitcoin gains ground as an emerging store of value.
Impact on the dollar and institutional movements
Analysts point out that if the White House maintains this tariff gap (10% for much of the world and more than 100% for China), the US economy could face supply chain complications and imported inflation, given that China is a critical trading partner. Furthermore, other countries would find themselves in a position of "preferred allies," something that may not be sustainable in the long term.
In this context, institutional investors and hedge funds are considering increasing their exposure to BTC. We're seeing increased volume in Bitcoin futures and increased use of stablecoins on exchanges, indicating that several financial groups are ready to enter the spot market when they see opportunities.
Outlook for other altcoins
While the spotlight is on Bitcoin, other cryptocurrencies could also benefit. Ethereum (ETH) and some altcoins with solid fundamentals (e.g., DeFi-related projects or gaming) could take advantage of the liquidity injected into the crypto market. However, BTC is typically the first asset to rise when global tensions arise, as its market capitalization and reputation make it the "barometer" of the crypto industry.
Of course, more speculative altcoins could have even more volatile movements: upwards if a lot of capital is injected into crypto, or downwards if investors opt for the security of BTC or stablecoins.
Could other nations replicate US policy?
The risk of more countries adopting protectionist practices is real. Many governments, seeing Washington's decision (10% for the majority and over 100% for China), could define similar measures to protect strategic sectors or negotiate trade advantages. This broader "tariff war" would lead to greater distrust in the global trading system and, consequently, a search for assets that transcend borders. Once again, Bitcoin.
Furthermore, in Latin America, some countries have already flirted with the idea of using Bitcoin in their reserves or legalizing it to varying degrees (El Salvador was a pioneer). If monetary volatility intensifies due to the trade dispute, it's not unreasonable for other governments in the region to further examine crypto adoption.
A scenario of tensions and opportunities in crypto
Trump's new tariffs have shaken up the trade landscape, undermining confidence in the global economy. This has led, as in the past, to a rediscovery of Bitcoin as a safe haven asset and fueled speculation about its price.
If the trade war expands and the dollar experiences volatility, BTC's "digital gold" narrative would be reinforced. Furthermore, the interest of institutional investors could bring an influx of capital that benefits both BTC and quality altcoins.
For investors who closely follow the relationship between geopolitics and cryptocurrencies, understanding these dynamics is essential. Bitcoin, and by extension the rest of the crypto market, could be one of the major players in a world headed toward greater economic and political friction.
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