At the $8.05 billion expiration moment, the game between Bitcoin and Ethereum escalates again — is the market ready to face extreme volatility?
Today, the crypto market welcomes an event that can be termed an 'options storm': Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts worth $8.05 billion are concentrated on expiration. This is not a routine fluctuation in the crypto derivatives market but a critical node that may trigger severe short-term market turbulence. For sensitive market participants, whether whales, large accounts, or ordinary investors, such a level of concentrated expiration itself implies the potential for violent price actions.
According to data, in this round of expiration events, Bitcoin options contracts reached 77,642, with a notional amount of about $7.24 billion; while Ethereum had 458,926 contracts expire, corresponding to a total value of $808.3 million. Not only is the quantity large, but the structure of the contracts also hints at an escalation of market divergence: the put option ratios are 0.73 (BTC) and 0.74 (ETH), indicating that despite the overall bullish tendency, the market has not formed a consensus expectation.
Bitcoin: Institutions entering, whales buying aggressively, price strongly standing above $93,000.
The current trading price of Bitcoin is around $93,471, far above the 'maximum pain' level at $86,000 — this level represents the price point at which option buyers would incur the greatest losses. Such a significant deviation from the maximum pain level usually suggests potential sharp price fluctuations as the expiration date approaches, aiming to deliver a 'maximum pain penalty' to most holders.
On-chain data shows that whale behavior reveals a clear signal: they are accumulating and do not intend to exit. According to Glassnode's accumulation trend score, large holding accounts (addresses holding over 10,000 coins) have seen their score rise to 0.9, showing a strong buying intensity, while whale addresses holding 1,000-10,000 coins also maintain an active accumulation state (score 0.7). This means that even with short-term market volatility, structural buying power is still building long-term support.
Additionally, from the options structure, multiple large buy orders are concentrated between $90,000 and $110,000, suggesting that major investors are still optimistic about Bitcoin's short-term challenge of the $100,000 level. It is worth noting that following recent signals of policy easing from Trump, market risk appetite has noticeably increased, with some institutions even beginning to adjust their portfolios from gold to BTC.
Ethereum: Frequent selling signals from whales, with limited rebound height.
In stark contrast to Bitcoin, Ethereum is experiencing a 'profit-taking wave.' Despite ETH rebounding above $1,800 on Monday, it still failed to stabilize below the critical point — the $1,900 maximum pain level. In other words, in the options structure, ETH is currently in a position where bears have an advantage.
On-chain data shows that in just the past 48 hours, Ethereum whales have sold over 63,000 ETH, equivalent to about $11 million. Over the past week, the total amount of ETH transferred to exchanges exceeded 305,000, worth over $540 million — a typical 'sign of a sell-off.'
The overall trading structure of ETH currently shows signs of weakness, and even if it rebounds, it is unlikely to break through the $2,000 resistance area unless a very strong external catalytic event occurs.
Derivatives market: Bitcoin leads, while Ethereum struggles to catch up.
This $8.05 billion options expiration event further exacerbates the 'strength-weakness disparity' between the two major crypto assets. Bitcoin shows a high degree of structural support in the market — from option buying to whale holdings to institutional inflows, the entire bullish pattern is very clear. In contrast, Ethereum appears more as profit-taking during rebounds, with significantly insufficient upward momentum in the short term.
This is also reflected in the activity of derivatives. Despite the large number of ETH contracts, the vast majority of open contracts are concentrated in the $1,800-$2,000 range, indicating traders lack confidence in a high-level breakthrough. In contrast, BTC options activity is more focused on the $90,000 to $100,000 range, with a clearer intention to bet on price breakout.
Behind the structural differentiation: Bitcoin's 'institutionalization' is accelerating comprehensively.
From a longer-term perspective, this options event is not just a short-term price game; it actually reveals further evolution of the crypto market structure: Bitcoin is becoming the preferred risk asset for global institutional investors, possessing the trading logic of 'digital gold'; while Ethereum still faces uncertainties in the technology innovation cycle and layer-two ecosystem development, lacking a dominant position in the short term amid recovering risk appetite.
Recent continuous net inflows into ETFs, large whale accounts building positions, and the price's long-term stability in the previous high range all serve as the best footnote for Bitcoin's 'absorption of traditional capital.' According to Mlion.ai's on-chain behavioral analysis tool, the activity level of Bitcoin 'concentrated holding accounts' is at a historical median on the lower side, indicating that the main players have not yet exited, possessing potential momentum to push towards $100,000.
Summary: The window for extreme volatility has opened, BTC may continue to lead, while ETH faces short-term risks.
This round of options expiration event worth $8.05 billion is an important turning point for the market. The data shows that Bitcoin remains in a structurally strong cycle, with whales and institutions jointly building positions, and market bets continuing to rise; while Ethereum is oscillating below key resistance levels, with selling pressure continuously released, appearing somewhat weak.
From an investment strategy perspective, during such event windows, the market is prone to 'first inducing long positions then crashing' or experiencing 'severe volatility washout' trends. It is recommended to use Mlion.ai's options monitoring model and large account behavior tracking tool to track the main players' dynamics in real time, identify volatility turning points, and seize entry or reduction opportunities.
This is not just a game of prices but a game of trend direction, and the winners are often those who understand the changes in market psychology.
Disclaimer: The above content is for informational sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment involves risks, and caution is advised when entering the market.
