This article compiles analytical material from more than 15 top sources.
Bitcoin in 2030: numbers, scenarios, and opinions of major players
Despite volatility and periodic corrections, Bitcoin continues to attract attention from both retail and institutional investors. More and more analysts view BTC as a long-term strategic asset, and some of the largest investment funds have already shared their forecasts for 2030.
In this overview, we have gathered key opinions from ARK Invest, Fidelity, Pantera Capital, Grayscale, and Galaxy Digital, as well as systematized their justifications, approaches to modeling, and assessments of Bitcoin's potential price by the end of the decade.
ARK Invest: betting on digital gold and network effects
Price forecast for 2030:
Base scenario: $1,000,000
Optimistic (bull-case): $1,500,000
Conservative (bear-case): $300,000
Forecast date: January 2023 (report 'Big Ideas 2023')
Justification:
ARK Invest, led by Cathie Wood, claims that Bitcoin continues to strengthen its position even after the decline in 2022. The company refers to the growth of hash rate, increasing number of long-term holders, and historically high returns of BTC. ARK predicts that institutional investors will include Bitcoin in their portfolios, and its status as digital gold will only strengthen.
Fidelity: Metcalfe's model and mass adoption
Price forecast for 2030: ~$1,000,000
Forecast date: 2021–2023
Justification:
Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro Analysis at Fidelity, applies Metcalfe's model: the value of the network grows exponentially with the increase in its users. If the current trend of BTC adoption continues, it could reach $1 million by 2030. Fidelity also emphasizes the importance of halvings and limited supply as key factors contributing to price growth.
Pantera Capital: the point of no return has been passed
Price forecast for 2028: ~$740,000
Forecast date: November 2024
Justification:
Pantera Capital's head Dan Morehead is confident that Bitcoin has already reached the 'escape velocity' — the point after which a rollback to zero is virtually impossible. According to him, mass adoption, institutional products, and halvings in 2024 and 2028 create conditions for sustainable growth. BTC, in his opinion, could occupy up to 3% of the total value of all financial assets in the world.
Grayscale: digital gold is not a metaphor
Price estimate for 2030: ~$500,000 (at parity with gold)
Forecast date: approximately 2022
Justification:
Although Grayscale has not specified a concrete number, the company's analysts believe that Bitcoin can reach a market capitalization comparable to that of gold ($10 trillion). This is equivalent to a price of about $500,000 per BTC. The fund emphasizes the role of BTC as a hedge instrument amid global inflation and high debt burdens of countries.
Galaxy Digital: Bitcoin will catch up to gold
Price forecast for 2030: ~$800,000 – $900,000
Forecast date: 2023
Justification:
Mike Novogratz, founder of Galaxy Digital, claims that Bitcoin could achieve parity with gold within 5–8 years. He believes that decentralization, ease of storage, and transfer of BTC make it a more efficient alternative to the precious metal. With a market capitalization of $17–18 trillion, equivalent to the gold market, the price of one BTC could exceed $800,000.
Comparative table
Fund / ExpertYear of forecastForecast PriceMain ArgumentARK Invest2023$300K – $1.5MScarcity, institutional demand, network effectFidelity (Timmer)2021–2023~$1,000,000Metcalfe's model, user growth, halvingsPantera Capital2024~$740,000 (2028)Mass adoption, institutional investmentsGrayscale2022~$500,000Parity with gold, inflation risksGalaxy Digital2023~$800–900KCompetition with gold, decentralization, demand
Conclusion
Forecasts from major investment firms for Bitcoin in 2030 vary from $300,000 to $1,500,000 per coin. Despite differences in approaches, all funds converge on one point: Bitcoin has the potential to establish itself as a full-fledged asset class — digital gold, a safe haven asset, and a strategic investment.
Considering the expected halvings in 2024 and 2028, institutionalization, and growing trust from global markets, BTC could play a key role in the financial system of the new decade.
By analyzing all this, we finally understand how we can join the success and lead a better life.
📚 Sources and materials
ARK Invest
ARK Invest – Big Ideas 2023 Report
https://ark-invest.com/big-ideas-2023Cathie Wood – appearances on Bloomberg, CNBC, interviews on YouTube (2022–2024)
ARK – Blockchain Monthly Updates & Market Commentary (2023–2024)
Fidelity Investments
Fidelity Digital Assets – Bitcoin First (2022)
https://www.fidelitydigitalassets.comJurrien Timmer – Twitter and analysis on Metcalfe's model
https://twitter.com/TimmerFidelityFidelity Viewpoints – Bitcoin adoption curve & valuation frameworks (2021–2023)
Pantera Capital
Dan Morehead – interviews CNBC, Bloomberg, Real Vision (November 2024)
Pantera Blockchain Letter – monthly reports
https://www.panteracapital.com/blockchain-letter
Grayscale Investments
Grayscale – Valuing Bitcoin Report
https://grayscale.com/researchGrayscale Insights – market analysis and comparison with gold (2021–2023)
Galaxy Digital
Mike Novogratz – interviews Bloomberg, CNBC (2023)
Galaxy Research – reports on Bitcoin Adoption & Market Structure
https://www.galaxy.com/research
Additional analytical materials
CoinDesk, The Block, Bitcoin Magazine – ETF analytics, halvings, institutional trends
JPMorgan, Standard Chartered, Bernstein – estimates of BTC growth at parity with gold
Glassnode, CryptoQuant – on-chain BTC metrics (long-term holders, hash rate, transaction volumes)