Based on the latest market dynamics as of April 25, 2025, and the real-time of Ethereum (ETH), combined with technical and macro factors, the following trading strategy is formulated.
Support level rebound to go long
- Entry conditions: Price stabilizes in the range of $1,720-$1,730 (4-hour EMA30 support), combined with RSI oversold (<30) or bottom divergence signals.
- Target: rebound to $1,750-$1,780, take profit in batches after breaking through.
- Stop Loss: Strictly set below $1,700, with risk control within 3%.
Resistance Level Short Selling
- Entry conditions: Price rebounds to $1,800-$1,820 and faces resistance, with a 1-hour KDJ death cross or a long upper shadow appearing.
- Target: Pull back to $1,750-$1,760, break through to see $1,720.
- Stop Loss: Set above $1,830 to avoid false breakout risk.
Market Risks and Correlation Factors
- Technical pressure: A double top pattern is forming around $1,830 on the 1-hour chart, and failure to break through may trigger a pullback.
- BTC correlation: If Bitcoin breaks through the resistance of $95,000, it may drive ETH to rise; if it falls below $92,000, it could drag ETH down.
- Policy variables: Trump's crypto reserve plan boosts confidence in the short term, but the delay of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectation to June (probability 55.8%) may suppress risk appetite.
- On-chain risk: The current price of ETH is approaching the maximum pain point of $1,750 for options, and if it falls below $1,720, it may trigger over $120 million in liquidations.
Positioning and Risk Control
- Total position: ≤50%, single leverage ≤3-5 times, avoid heavy betting.
- Stop-loss discipline: Strictly set stop-loss levels; if ETH falls below $1,700 or BTC breaches $92,000, decisively exit the position.
- Replenishment plan: If the price drops sharply below $1,680, allocate 30% of the funds for gradual entry to bet on a technical rebound.
