Don't be fooled by Trump's "smoke bomb!"

After Trump announced a "significant reduction in tariffs on China" and expressed no intention to fire Powell, U.S. stocks experienced a全面反弹 last night, with many people starting to say Trump has "surrendered." But is that really the case? How many tricks are hidden behind this rebound?

He is not surrendering; rather, he wants to use a "fake fall" to exchange for chips!

Indeed, there are certain practical reasons behind Trump's "concession" this time.

Firstly, the U.S. economy is struggling to hold on. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell explicitly stated that tariffs are driving up inflation, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has hit a 20-year high, with a significant amount of funds selling off U.S. debt to avoid risk.

Secondly, the CEOs of retail giants like Walmart and Home Depot have given Trump a real-life "livelihood lesson." If tariffs are raised further, supermarket shelves will be empty within two months! There are no substitutes for clothing, home appliances, and daily necessities made in China. Increased tariffs will ultimately lead to a "major hemorrhage" in American wallets.

However, this rebound in U.S. stocks, while seemingly fierce, is essentially a technical rebound in a bear market.

The gains from the day before yesterday were all made in the first hour of trading, but afterward, about 1% of the gain was given back, and it gradually declined after the first hour of trading.

This president, who "governs via Twitter," flips faster than turning a page. While calling for tax cuts, he simultaneously imposes fees on Chinese ships entering U.S. ports and pressures allies to isolate China. This style of "soft talk, hard actions" is bound to keep market fluctuations ongoing.

Moreover, compromising with the business community now is more about leaving a way out for next year's election. After all, empty store shelves appearing during the election season would be a disaster for the election outlook. However, if the stock market warms up afterward, who knows what tariff weapon this "master of deals" will pull out.

Do not bet on policy reversals; Trump's "goodwill" can change at any moment. Instead of chasing highs and lows, it’s better to invest honestly in index funds (like the S&P 500 ETF) in batches to diversify risks.

Position management! Position management! No matter how much it is emphasized, it's never too much. Buying wrong is not scary; what's scary is having no position space for further operations. Always maintain a cash position of 30% to 50%.

Remember: Every rebound in a bear market is to trap more people, so don't rush to become a "bag holder."