Anndy Lian | Inter-Governmental Blockchain Adviser | Book Author | Investor | Board Member | Singapore
Market wrap: A relief rally amid easing tensions and crypto resilience
Global financial markets breathed a sigh of relief this week as President Donald Trump signalled a softer stance on two critical fronts: his relationship with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and trade negotiations with China. After weeks of heightened volatility driven by tariff threats and uncertainty over US monetary policy, Trump’s announcement that he has no plans to dismiss Powell and intends to approach trade talks with China amicably sparked a robust rally across equity markets.
The S&P 500 surged 1.7 per cent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.1 per cent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite led the charge with a 2.5 per cent gain. This relief rally extended to Asian equity indices, which continued their upward trajectory this morning after five consecutive days of gains. US equity futures also point to a higher open, suggesting that investor confidence is rebounding, at least for now. However, beneath the surface, mixed signals from US Treasuries, commodities, and economic data, alongside a resilient cryptocurrency market, paint a complex picture of global risk sentiment.
The US Dollar Index, a key barometer of the greenback’s strength, rose 0.9 per cent to close at 99.844, reflecting renewed confidence in US assets following Trump’s comments. The dollar’s gains were particularly notable against safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen, as investors dialled back expectations of a full-blown trade war or a crisis in US monetary policy. Yet, the Treasury market told a more nuanced story.
The yield curve flattened sharply, with the two-year Treasury yield rising 7.4 basis points to 3.871 per cent while the 10-year yield dipped 2.0 basis points to 4.381 per cent. This divergence suggests that while short-term optimism drives demand for shorter-dated Treasuries, longer-term concerns about economic growth and inflation persist. The Treasury market’s mixed performance aligns with broader uncertainties about the Federal Reserve’s next steps, particularly after Powell’s cautious remarks in recent weeks about the economic fallout from tariffs.
Commodities, meanwhile, reflected a shift away from safe-haven assets. Brent crude oil fell 2.0 per cent to US$66 per barrel, pressured by reports that some OPEC+ members are pushing for an accelerated increase in output. This development and easing trade tensions have reduced fears of supply disruptions, weighing on oil prices. Gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, also tumbled 2.7 per cent as risk-on sentiment took hold.
The decline in gold prices underscores a broader unwinding of defensive positioning, as investors rotate back into equities and other growth-oriented assets. However, the commodity market’s reaction also highlights the fragility of this rally—any reversal in trade negotiations or unexpected geopolitical flare-ups could quickly reignite demand for safe havens.
In Asia, economic developments were relatively subdued but supportive of the broader risk-on mood. Bank Indonesia held its benchmark 7-day reverse repo rate at 5.75 per cent, with the Deposit Facility and Lending Facility unchanged at 5.00 per cent and 6.50 per cent, respectively. This decision reflects a cautious approach to monetary policy amid global uncertainties, particularly the US-China trade conflict. Meanwhile, US economic data releases had a muted impact on markets.
The Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly improved, signalling resilience in the industrial sector, but the Services PMI came in softer than expected, hinting at uneven economic momentum. However, March’s new home sales beat expectations, providing a bright spot for the housing market and reinforcing optimism about consumer demand. These mixed signals suggest that while the US economy remains on solid footing, it is not immune to the headwinds of global trade tensions and monetary policy uncertainty.
Against this backdrop, the cryptocurrency market has emerged as a standout performer, demonstrating remarkable resilience amid traditional market volatility. Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating above US$93,000, buoyed by significant institutional inflows into US spot ETFs and the launch of Twenty One Capital, a new Bitcoin Treasury company aiming to rival MicroStrategy.
Twenty One Capital debuted with an impressive 42,000 Bitcoin and plans to go public through a merger with Cantor Equity Partners, signalling growing corporate adoption of Bitcoin as a strategic asset. Recent data shows record inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, underscoring a resurgence in institutional demand. Technical analysis points to a potential resistance level at US$96,100, with the psychologically significant US$100,000 milestone within reach if bullish momentum persists.
However, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap has turned negative, indicating more substantial buying pressure on Binance than Coinbase. This divergence suggests that global retail and institutional investors may be driving Bitcoin’s price action differently across platforms, a dynamic worth monitoring as the cryptocurrency approaches key resistance levels.
Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, is also showing signs of strength, with bulls targeting the US$2,000 level as resistance weakens. After weeks of consolidation and bearish sentiment, Ethereum’s price action is gaining momentum, supported by increased on-chain activity and renewed buying pressure.
According to IntoTheBlock, Ethereum faces modest resistance near US$1,860, a key zone that could be tested soon. The cryptocurrency’s ability to decouple from traditional financial markets, even as geopolitical tensions and the US-China trade conflict intensify, is particularly encouraging for investors.
This decoupling reflects growing confidence in Ethereum’s fundamentals, including its role as the backbone of decentralised finance (DeFi) and non-fungible tokens (NFTs). Posts on X highlight surging on-chain activity, with projects like Lil Pudgys and Azuki driving network engagement, while institutional accumulation of ETH further bolsters its bullish outlook.
From my perspective, the current market rally is a welcome reprieve but should be approached with cautious optimism. Trump’s conciliatory tone on Powell and China is a positive development, but his track record of unpredictable policy shifts warrants skepticism. The relief rally in equities, while robust, may be short-lived if trade negotiations falter or if Powell’s cautious stance on rate cuts reignites fears of tighter monetary policy.
The Treasury market’s flattening yield curve is a red flag, signalling that investors are bracing for potential economic slowdowns despite short-term optimism. Commodities like oil and gold reflect this uncertainty, with their declines tied to easing tensions but vulnerable to reversal if geopolitical risks resurface.
The cryptocurrency market, however, offers a compelling counter-narrative. Bitcoin and Ethereum’s resilience amid traditional market volatility underscores their growing status as alternative assets. Institutional adoption, as evidenced by Twenty One Capital’s ambitious debut and record ETF inflows, is a game-changer for Bitcoin. Ethereum’s technical strength and on-chain activity further reinforce its potential for a trend reversal.
Yet, risks remain. Bitcoin’s negative Coinbase Premium Gap suggests uneven buying pressure, and Ethereum’s US$1,860 resistance level could pose a near-term challenge. Moreover, the broader market’s sensitivity to US-China trade developments and Fed policy means that cryptocurrencies, while decoupling to some extent, are not entirely immune to macro headwinds.
Looking ahead, investors should remain vigilant. The US economy is showing pockets of strength, as seen in manufacturing and housing data, but softer services PMI and global trade uncertainties could cap upside potential. Bank Indonesia’s steady rates reflect a broader trend of central banks adopting a wait-and-see approach, which may limit monetary stimulus in the near term.
For crypto investors, Bitcoin’s US$96,100 resistance and Ethereum’s US$1,860 sell wall are critical levels to watch. If global risk sentiment continues to improve, both assets could test higher targets, but any deterioration in trade talks or Fed hawkishness could trigger a pullback.
In conclusion, the market’s current trajectory is one of cautious optimism, driven by Trump’s softer rhetoric and supported by resilient US economic data and a buoyant crypto market. However, the interplay of Treasury yields, commodities, and geopolitical risks suggests that volatility is far from over.
“I see the cryptocurrency market’s strength as a beacon of innovation and diversification in an otherwise turbulent landscape. Investors would be wise to balance their enthusiasm with a clear-eyed assessment of the macro risks ahead, particularly as the US-China trade dynamic and Fed policy continue to shape global markets.” — Anndy Lian
Source: https://e27.co/market-wrap-a-relief-rally-amid-easing-tensions-and-crypto-resilience-20250424/
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