Fundamentals:
1. Paul Atkins officially replaces Gary Gensler as the chairman of the SEC in the U.S. He has publicly stated multiple times that he supports innovation, encourages self-regulation, questions the SEC's heavy-handed regulatory actions, and advocates for clearer regulations. He has previously provided consulting services to multiple cryptocurrency companies. In his inauguration ceremony on Tuesday, he pledged to adopt a 'rational and coherent' regulatory approach to cryptocurrencies.
2. Trump stated that tariffs on Chinese goods will not reach 145% but will significantly decrease, though not to zero. With optimistic expectations for U.S.-China tariff negotiations, global trade tensions are easing, risk sentiment is boosted, the U.S. stock market surges, gold plummets to 3350, and Bitcoin skyrockets to 94000;
3. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in May has dropped to 91.7%; Ether Treasury has minted an additional 1 billion USDT.
Technical Analysis:
BTC: With the new chairman of the SEC in the U.S. taking office, the easing of trade tensions between China and the U.S., a surge in the U.S. stock market, and a significant increase in new U's, Bitcoin has experienced another surge, breaking through the 90 and 92 levels to reach around 94. It is about to face a massive selling pressure in the 95-98 range in February. The daily chart is currently showing a three-day strong trend, with a rise of ten thousand points; the momentum is very fierce. However, the huge selling pressure at the 95 level means that even if it is to break through, it must be done in batches while also accumulating strength. This is similar to the mid-April period when it repeatedly surged to around 86 from the 83 level and only welcomed this wave of large increases after a week of accumulation. The 4-hour chart has started to rise from the 84 position, currently showing a rise of ten thousand points. It has surged again this morning but is now experiencing stagnation. Combined with the selling pressure at the 95 level above, the short-term market is expected to enter an adjustment phase. For intra-day operations, pay close attention to the resistance at the 935-945 level above and the support at the 915-905 level below.
ETH: Combining the weak performance from previous days, there was a strong suppression yesterday morning, with a sharp drop to around 1540 before rapidly recovering to around 1570. This wave of suppression by the 'dog dealer' created significant panic and a downturn in the market. The daily chart closed with an 11% increase in a strong bullish candle, directly hitting the 1780 resistance level without any pullback; the momentum is very fierce, and the short-term target on the daily chart is temporarily set at the 1950 level above. The 4-hour chart indicates that the upward momentum is maintained, stagnating within the 1780-1830 range from late March to early April, where there are a small number of trapped positions. Given the current market activity, these trapped positions are unlikely to release anytime soon. For intra-day operations, pay attention to the support at the 1760-1740 level below and the resistance at the 1830-1850 level above.
Altcoins: LPT, which was specifically mentioned on Monday, can be a key focus, with a rise of over 50% in three days. The three major sectors highlighted yesterday—artificial intelligence, meme, and gaming—showed significant increases: TAO in artificial intelligence rose over 10%, FET rose 5%, and LPT rose 50%; in the MEME sector, WIF rose 20%, PEOPLE rose 10%, and FLOKI rose 15%; in the gaming sector, gala rose 10%, GMT rose 5%, and sand rose 10%. The above cryptocurrencies have significantly outperformed most other coins, and further developments will be communicated later!
