April 23 Market Analysis

The performance of Bitcoin prices contrasts sharply with the U.S. stock market. The U.S. stock market continues to decline due to tariff issues, while Bitcoin rises against the trend, once reaching 94,000. The expansion of global M2 money supply is reflected in Bitcoin prices; the new high in M2 is the reason for optimism about Bitcoin's future hitting a historical high, but the price is highly volatile, creating a new CEME gap, with a starting point around 91,700, indicating Bitcoin has a demand to fill the gap downward. (Icon below)

Previously, the U.S. stock market fell due to tariff issues, with rising recession risks and frequent negative news. The market is concerned about negative GDP growth while also paying attention to the stock and bond yield rates from ten years ago. The yield on government bonds has approached the warning line of 4.5%, reducing attractiveness, and investors' willingness to buy has weakened. The dollar index has hit a three-year low, and the U.S. Treasury Secretary mentioned the possibility of initiating a bond repurchase, reflecting the severe state of the bond market. Market uncertainty has led funds to flow into gold as a safe haven, pushing gold prices to new highs. The Bitcoin market is also performing well; as the U.S. stock market weakens, Bitcoin buying increases, and Coinbase shows a positive premium, indicating increased buying demand from U.S. investors.

Previously, Bitcoin faced a resistance zone formed by three key moving averages: the 200-day moving average (88,500), the realized price for 2025 (91,565), and the realized price for short-term holders (92,600). This resistance zone has now been broken. The 200-day moving average is a long-term trend indicator; prices above it indicate a medium to long-term upward trend. The 2025 realized price represents the overall profit and loss boundary for new investors entering this year. The realized price for short-term holders is the average cost line for purchasers over the past 155 days. The conversion of resistance to support levels takes time; if it can maintain above these levels, it will attract more funds to chase higher prices.

Currently, Bitcoin faces short-term risks; the four-hour RSI is overbought, and the number of closed contracts has increased significantly. An increase driven by the derivatives market is difficult to sustain and requires support from spot market trading volumes. This week, there has been a substantial influx of funds during two spot ETF trading days, marking the largest single-day inflow since early February, and there is hope for this to continue. Currently, Bitcoin faces short-term risks; the four-hour RSI is overbought, and the number of closed contracts has increased significantly. An increase driven by the derivatives market is difficult to sustain and requires support from spot market trading volumes. This week, there has been a substantial influx of funds during two spot ETF trading days, marking the largest single-day inflow since early February, and there is hope for this to continue.