Market structure
BTC continues to test the resistance zone of 88,000–88,500 USDT. The price movement maintains a short-term upward vector, but the structure of candles on H4 indicates a weakening of the momentum. Volumes at current levels are low, which limits the likelihood of a sustainable breakout.
Technical indicators
RSI (H4): value 70.58 — the indicator is entering the overbought zone. This indicates an increased likelihood of a pullback in the absence of external support.
MACD (H4): a bullish cross is maintained, but the histogram is losing strength. This may be a sign of slowing momentum.
Ichimoku (H4): the cloud supports the movement, there are signs of upward trend formation, but without a strong structure.
Ichimoku (1D): BTC is testing the upper part of the cloud. Consolidation above Kumo will be a technical confirmation of a change in the medium-term trend.
Liquidation zones
According to Coinglass, above the level of 88,800 USDT, a dense zone of liquidation of short positions begins. A breakout of this level may be accompanied by an acceleration of movement due to cascading short closures. Below 86,000 USDT, long liquidations are concentrated, including from the level of 84,000 to 82,500 USDT, which creates conditions for activating the downward scenario in case of a breakdown of support.
Key levels
Resistance level 88,500 USDT — a significant zone from which a reversal was already observed in March. A breakout of this level may trigger further growth.
Support level 86,000 USDT — an important marker of the strength of the current movement. A drop below this level with consolidation will confirm the weakness of buyers.
Support in the zone of 84,000 USDT — an area for potential reaccumulation and a halt to the decline.
Support 82,500 USDT — the lower boundary according to liquidation data and a likely target in case of a downward impulse.
Development scenarios
Scenario A — corrective (base):
If BTC cannot overcome the zone of 88,500 USDT and shows weakness with subsequent decline below 86,000 USDT, this will confirm the beginning of a corrective movement. The targets are the levels of 84,000 and 82,500 USDT.
Signals for implementation: a decline on volumes, bearish candlestick patterns on H4.
Scenario B — breakout (alternative):
With a successful breakout and consolidation above 88,500 USDT, further growth is possible with a target of 89,700–90,500 USDT.
Signals for implementation: a confident candle on H4 or daily with volume, breakout of the cloud on 1D.
Summary
BTC is near a critical resistance zone. The absence of a clear dominance of buyers at current levels requires caution. The scenario of continued growth requires confirmation in the form of a breakout of 88,500 USDT. In case of failure, there is a high probability of a reversal and pullback to the area of 84,000 USDT and below. Increased attention is recommended to the price behavior in the zone of 86,000 USDT — as a critical control level.