#BTC a year after the halving

Historical analysis of the cycles of 2012, 2016, 2020, and the current 2024 shows: the active phase of Bitcoin's growth typically begins not immediately after the halving, but 9–15 months later. This is due to the market requiring time to adapt to the new level of supply and to form confident demand.

It is now April 2025, which means we are approximately in the 12th month of the current cycle. The price of BTC remains below historical highs, and this has already been observed in a similar phase in 2015 and 2019. Discrepancies in the growth rates fall within the standard deviation — the cycle is developing within the norm, albeit with some individual characteristics.

The current cycle is following the classic scenario, despite local fluctuations. The mechanics of the cycles remain intact — and this gives reason to expect a strong movement in the next 3–6 months.