Following the previous topic, let's discuss the direction of the mid-term cryptocurrency market in the coming period.
In terms of Old Xu's trading system, I emphasize that there must be a basis for everything, rather than simply looking at K-line patterns and daydreaming.
During the last major drop, I said within the community that buying below 75,000 could be a bottom-fishing opportunity. Although there were some setbacks later, Bitcoin has rebounded from a low of 74,000 to the current position of 85,000.
Altcoins have also begun to stabilize, with some even quietly doubling in value; although they have doubled, they are still in the pit, but the market makers have released information indicating they haven't died or abandoned their positions.
The primary market has also begun to warm up with SOL recovering around 140, and the weak coin RFC, under the speculation of large funds, has rarely become a big dog breaking 100M recently.
Objectively, the recent chaotic tariffs created by Trump have actually accelerated the market process.
There’s no way around it; carrying tens of trillions of dollars in debt, even the most shrewd and prudent businessman finds it hard to remain calm.
It needs to be called for and fussed over, looking for reasons to cut interest rates.
Recently, the US dollar index quietly reached a new low since its peak in 2022, breaking the 100 iron bottom that had lasted for more than two years.
There isn't much discussion within the circle, and this indicator tends to indicate mid to long-term trends.
But this is an extremely important signal; in my experience library, a significant drop is a rare good opportunity.
So on April 16, in the midst of a sluggish market, I began to take long positions in several targets, with stop losses at previous lows and a good risk-reward ratio, which is the kind where I wouldn't regret losing.
A new low in the US dollar index likely means that interest rate cuts have already been priced in by the market.
It means that the world's top players have received the script and made responses earlier than ordinary people.
What does it mean to be priced in? Simply put, the market has already considered the interest rate cuts in advance, reflected in the price of the dollar. The Federal Reserve already knows the current economic situation and has taken corresponding measures, which is why the dollar index has fallen.
This is good news for the cryptocurrency market. Why do I say that? There are countless connections between cryptocurrencies and the US dollar. Generally speaking, when the dollar weakens, it benefits risk assets, and cryptocurrencies have a greater chance of rising. It's like two children on a seesaw; when one goes down, the other has a greater chance of bouncing up.
From the perspective of market dynamics, this phenomenon is also easy to understand. When the dollar weakens and high interest rates are unattainable, speculators will look for other more promising investments, and risk appetite will increase.
At this time, market liquidity will flood again, and the thirsty crypto market is expected to welcome a decent influx.
To summarize the mid-term trend in the crypto market, it is highly likely to hype the interest rate cut around June, at least there will be a decent rebound, and Bitcoin will likely return to around $100,000. During this period, various altcoins will also perform well. If you didn't buy at the bottom, you can sell to break even later; don't have too high expectations. This round of 'altcoin season' will just be a pattern of each time hitting three to five times, then falling back to where it started, unlike the past when it continuously rose tenfold.
Note that this is a mid-term script assessment; it does not mean an immediate explosion. If there is a false short opportunity later, it would be a good time to enter.
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