There is a law that is very useful in the crypto circle: what is popular must die, and the wheel of fortune turns.
Just like ETH was generally considered a better choice than BTC by retail investors before the bull run.
In fact, the car is too heavy to pull, and the returns are far inferior to the severely fud-ridden sol.
In the early stages of the 2023 bull market, Ethereum was like Athena in the crypto world, revered by believers as the embodiment of wisdom and wealth. The mainstream narrative at that time believed that ETH2.0 would complete an epic upgrade, the Layer2 ecosystem would swallow traditional finance, and NFTs and the metaverse would reshape human civilization. The market consensus was so strong that a leading exchange even launched a 'ETH Believer' exclusive financial product.
This collective frenzy gave rise to a bizarre valuation logic: Ethereum's market cap once approached 60% of Bitcoin's, and 'ETH/BTC exchange rate breaking 0.1' became standard talk among analysts. A certain Wall Street investment bank even established a dynamic valuation model, claiming that Ethereum's network effect would enable it to 'regicide' by 2025. But reality gave everyone a loud slap in the face—when Bitcoin pierced the $100,000 sky backed by sovereign credit, Ethereum launched a $2,000 defense battle in the illusion of breaking $10,000.
The value discovery in small circles has the potential to explode, and the counterattack of the Solana ecosystem in 2024 is a classic case. When market attention was focused on Bitcoin ETF approvals and Ethereum's Cancun upgrade, smart money had quietly laid out the SOL ecosystem. Riding the wave of pumpfun memes and the AI token peak, sol surged from $7 to nearly $300.
True alchemy requires reverse thinking.
Capital games have a clear path dependency: emergence of new narratives → institutions quietly operating in the dark → media creating momentum → retail investors FOMO taking over → main players cashing out. The AI token frenzy at the beginning of 2025 also follows this script; when Twitter KOLs start promoting 'blockchain + AGI', smart money has already completed chip distribution.
When an asset or sector is widely favored and the probability of breaking through is minimal, that is the peak. The reasoning is very simple: there are no new retail investors to take over.
Finally, in the 24-hour running crypto casino, maintaining 'presence' is not a choice but a survival necessity. A certain quantitative fund in 2024 conducted an experiment: freezing the investment portfolio for six months resulted in its returns underperforming dynamic rebalancing portfolios by 87%. The truth behind this data is that a new narrative in the cryptocurrency market is born every 90 days, and a valuation system is reconstructed every 180 days.
Looking back from the time node of 2025, the cryptocurrency market is like an ever-unfolding Möbius strip. Every seemingly unbreakable consensus will ultimately disintegrate in the torrent of capital; some projects that have been discarded like worn-out shoes may transform into new kings in the next cycle. This cycle is not a simple repetition but a spiral process of value discovery.
When the market once again echoes the clamor of 'this time is different', please remember:
Bitcoin's 'digital gold' status is essentially a byproduct of geopolitical games, meaning BTC's success in this round is not inevitable.
The myth of Solana's counterattack is merely a necessary choice for capital seeking a new carrier.
In this arena without eternal kings, the only constant is change itself. Perhaps, as Satoshi Nakamoto left a metaphor in the genesis block: the real value of cryptocurrency lies not in the utopia built by code but in the perpetual vigilance and disruption of 'certainty'.
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