The recent drop of $SOL SOL has fallen to around $118, forming a weekly double bottom structure, coinciding with the 100-week moving average (around $115-$118). Historically, this area has triggered rebounds multiple times, such as the low of $115 in September 2024 forming a strong support zone with the current price. The current SOL/BTC exchange rate has fallen to 0.0018, approaching the bottom level of the 2023 bear market, indicating that its value relative to Bitcoin is undervalued and has high long-term return potential. The proportion of addresses holding SOL for over a year has risen to 63%, reaching a record high, indicating recognition of the bottom area by long-term investors (the 'diamond hands'); meanwhile, the unrealized loss ratio for short-term holders (holding time < 1 month) has reached 78%, in an extreme capitulation zone, usually signaling a market bottom. The funding rate in the derivatives market has turned negative, and the open interest in perpetual contracts has sharply decreased by 40%, indicating that leveraged long positions have been washed out, and the market has entered a 'no-leverage naked state', which may be a precursor to a reversal. Overall, the current price range of SOL ($115-$130) has characteristics of technical support and long-term value undervaluation. On-chain data and institutional holding costs further reinforce the possibility of a bottom. The market response in the coming weeks will determine whether the bottom is confirmed, requiring close monitoring of on-chain data and policy dynamics.
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