#交易心理学
📈【Trading Psychology: The 4 Core Rules to Overcome Human Nature】📉
💡 **Key Insights**
✅ **Probability Thinking Replaces Predictive Obsession**: The essence of the market is a collection of randomness and uncertainty; top traders focus on high-probability opportunities rather than single win or loss. Mark Douglas points out that 80% of trading success or failure depends on psychological management, with only 20% relying on technique. For example, using stop-loss rules to cope with unexpected black swan events, even if there’s a rebound after a single stop-loss, can still protect the account in the long term.
✅ **Emotional Control: The Prisoner's Dilemma of Fear and Greed**
• **Fear Trap**: Panic selling during declines leads to missing rebounds (like the blind stop-loss incident during the Oil Futures event);
• **Greed Spiral**: Fantasizing about unlimited growth when in profit, ignoring risk signals (such as over-leveraging during a bull market). Solution: Develop a “key checklist” to standardize operations and isolate emotional interference.
✅ **Discipline is the Moat**
• Limit single trade losses to ≤2% of total funds to avoid “holding on” that leads to collapse;
• Professional traders only participate in 3-5 high-certainty market trends per year, rejecting high-frequency ineffective trades (with a failure rate of 78%).
⚠ **Pitfall Avoidance Guide**
• Be wary of herd mentality: conduct independent analysis instead of following the crowd to chase prices (like the South China Sea bubble lesson);
• Break the anchoring effect: use market dynamics to replace buying cost decisions.
🔑 **Ultimate Weapon: Anti-Human Nature Training**
• Simulate adversity to sharpen mindset (refer to Wang Yangming's philosophy);
• Regularly review and reinforce “emotionless execution” muscle memory.