1. Bitcoin Market: Long and Short Battle Under High Volatility
The current price of Bitcoin is fluctuating around $84,800, with an intraday fluctuation range of $82,800-$85,500, close to the key resistance level of $85,500-$86,000.
Short-term Overbought Pressure: The 4-hour RSI indicator is close to 68, and the MACD golden cross momentum is weakening, indicating a marginal decrease in upward momentum. If it cannot break through $86,000, a technical correction may be triggered, with support looking down to $82,800 and a further target of the $80,000 round figure.
2. Capital Trends: Institutional Divergence and Leverage Risk
ETF Fund Flow: The U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF shows a "two extremes" scenario, with BlackRock (IBIT) attracting funds against the trend (with an inflow of $45.7 million in a single day), but Grayscale's GBTC continues to see net outflows (accounting for 75% of the total outflows), with $326.3 million flowing out in a single day on April 9, hitting a two-month high, indicating that some institutions are taking profits.
3. Performance of Other Tokens: Divergence Intensifies, Capital Concentrates on Leaders
Mainstream Tokens: Ethereum: Currently reported at $1,635, ETH/BTC exchange rate fell to a historical low of 0.019, with the technical outlook showing a bearish arrangement, short-term support at $1,500, and resistance at $1,635.
BNB: Affected by Binance's policy adjustments (allowing employees to trade cryptocurrencies), price volatility has intensified, falling 2.45% to $584 on April 14, with short-term attention needed on the $580 support.
4. Market Outlook and Operational Suggestions
Short-term (1-2 weeks): Key resistance level: $85,500-$86,000. If it breaks through with high volume, it may open a new round of upward movement, targeting $88,000-$90,000.
Support level: $82,800. If lost, it may test $80,000. Beware of the impact of Federal Reserve policies (with a 75% probability of a rate cut in June) and U.S. inflation data on market sentiment.
Medium-term (1-3 months): Halving Effect: Bitcoin halving is only 10 days away. Historical data shows that 6-12 months after halving is an upward cycle, but short-term selling pressure should be guarded against.
Regulatory Risk: If the U.S. SEC's proposal to restrict crypto staking services is passed, it may trigger institutional selling of $1-1.5 billion.
Operational Strategy:
Short-term Traders: Focus on range trading, buying low and selling high within $82,800-$85,500, and chase long positions if it breaks $86,000, with a stop loss at $85,000; if it falls below $82,800, consider light shorting, targeting $80,000.
Medium to Long-term Investors:
Build positions on dips, gradually accumulating below $80,000, holding until the peak after the halving cycle (expected at $120,000).
5. The current cryptocurrency market shows a pattern of "Bitcoin dominance, altcoins weak," with Bitcoin facing a long-short decision near $85,000. The technical aspect shows overbought conditions, and on-chain capital concentration creates contradictions. The global divergence of regulatory policies (tightening in China, compliance in Europe and the U.S.) and macroeconomic factors (expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts) will dominate mid-term trends. Investors should be wary of short-term correction risks while seizing opportunities before the halving, prioritizing allocations in Bitcoin and highly compliant mainstream assets, and avoiding high-risk altcoins.
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