Today's Market Sharing
In the world of trading, technical indicators have long been regarded as the standard, with tools like MACD, RSI, KDJ saturating traders' screens. However, more and more top traders are returning to basics—capturing the market's pulse solely through candlestick charts. This method, known as 'naked K trading,' does not deny technical analysis but instead aims to eliminate redundant information and directly focus on the core logic of price behavior.
Macroeconomic Perspective
1. This week, there are several significant economic data releases (ADP, non-farm payrolls, core PCE, Japan's interest rate decision, etc.), which may increase volatility. Regardless of bullish or bearish positions, pay attention to risk management.
2. The three co-founders of Trump's crypto project WLFI will meet with C2 in Abu Dhabi today. In the short term, Trump's + MEME concept tokens might see a second wave of speculation.
Technical Perspective
3. Last week, the weekly candle closed bullish with increased volume, and as we approach the end of the month (with a high probability of closing a bullish candle this month), bullish sentiment is being restored.
4. The 4-hour trend is oscillating in the range of 91600 to 95600. The bulls are just one step away from a formal reversal (fibo 0.618 at 96000), which will serve as the last defense for bears and a key position for bulls to expand their advantage.
5. In the trend, based on the bullish arrangement of the Vegas channel, short-term trading can focus on the support of the short-term EMA moving averages (92600 to 92000).
Market Sharing
Bitcoin remains under 96000, with a continued expectation of a pullback. The logic discussed in the analysis over the past two days applies here. Currently, the selling pressure within this range is not very apparent, but no bullish positions can be taken until the previous high is broken. If the high is broken, the range is breached, which means the bulls continue to extend, and this range should be treated as a continuation pattern, looking for new highs, potentially historical highs.
If a new high appears, there will be no bearish logic. Watch for pullbacks or reversals, and wait for new reversal structures to emerge, particularly multi-timeframe reversal signals. The general logic is as follows: if there are new changes in structure, the viewpoints will be updated continuously.
This viewpoint remains unchanged today. I will only act according to my logic; if you agree, follow along; if you disagree, do not follow. I cannot guarantee that my logic is correct every time, and if you are genuinely concerned, you can reduce your short positions.
