Bitcoin experienced a sharp 7% decline within hours, breaking below the key psychological threshold of $80,000. In moments of heightened volatility like this, Short-Term Holders (STH) are often the first to react, typically by exiting their positions to minimize losses.
This behavior is effectively captured by the STH-SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) indicator. When STH-SOPR falls below 1.0, it reflects that short-term investors are realizing losses — a classic signal of capitulation.
Looking back at 2024, major price corrections were accompanied by sharp drops in STH-SOPR, often reaching or falling below the -2 standard deviation band. These moments — notably in May, July, and August — aligned with periods of panic selling among short-term market participants.
What’s notable about the current situation is that STH-SOPR has not yet approached the lower band. Instead, it remains near the mean, suggesting that despite the recent price drop, short-term holders have not yet entered full capitulation mode.
This raises a critical question: Is the worst yet to come?
If STHs begin to exit more aggressively, the market could face further downside pressure. In the near term, close attention should be paid to whether the $78,000 support level can hold, as it may serve as a key line in the sand for the current market structure.
Written by Yonsei_dent
