I. Market Review: Energy accumulation amidst fluctuations
- Short-term volatility: In the past week, BTC fluctuated between $82,000 - $86,000, with declining trading volume. The MACD histogram shows weakening bullish momentum, but the weekly level remains above the 200-day moving average (key support at $78,000).
- On-chain signals:
- Whales increasing holdings: Over the past 7 days, more than 12,000 BTC have been transferred from exchanges to cold wallets, with the cost concentration around $87,000 (cost line for short-term holders). If it stabilizes, it may trigger a short squeeze.
- Floating profit rate differentiation: Long-term holders have a floating profit of 347%, while short-term holders face a loss of 6%. Historical data shows that this signal often indicates a mid-term rebound opportunity.
II. Core Drivers: Three major engines of the 2025 bull market
1. Institutional entry accelerates
- ETF continues to attract capital: The cumulative holding percentage of the US spot BTC ETF has reached 31%, with a net inflow of $17.5 billion in Q4. BlackRock's IBIT saw a weekly inflow of $1.45 billion, with institutional buying acting as a 'ballast' for prices.
- National strategic reserves: El Salvador plans to increase its holdings by 20,000 BTC, and Trump intends to promote a 'BTC Strategic Reserve Plan', which may become a breakthrough catalyst due to favorable policies.
2. Halving cycle effect
- Historical patterns show that 18-24 months after halving is the peak of a bull market. The current cycle (April 2024 halving) technically points to a target price of $125,000 - $200,000 by the end of 2025.
- Supply tightening coupled with ETF demand, MVRV ratio (currently 2.56) may trigger FOMO sentiment if it breaks above 3.2.
3. Macro policy shift
- Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations: June may mark the beginning of a rate cut cycle, with a weaker dollar pushing risk assets to be re-evaluated, enhancing BTC's hedging against inflation.
- Regulatory clarity: Advancement of US crypto legislation and issuance of licenses in emerging markets like the UAE reduce compliance uncertainty.
III. Technical Analysis: Key levels and bull-bear dynamics
- Support/Resistance:
- Bullish defense lines: $78,000 (200-day moving average), $87,000 (on-chain cost area).
- Breakthrough target: After stabilizing above $92,000, it may test the previous high of $110,000. Elliott Wave Theory points to a mid-term target of $125,000.
- Derivative signals:
- Perpetual contract funding rates turn positive, but there is no extreme leverage, with market sentiment being 'neutral to bullish'.
- Option IV dropped to 45%, indicating that after volatility compression, a directional breakout may be on the horizon.
- IV. Trading Strategy: Optimal risk-reward ratio allocation
|Spot position| Gradually build positions on dips to $82,000 - $84,000 | Stop loss below $78,000
|Hedging portfolio| Buy BTC call options + Short high-beta altcoins | Dynamic balance position to avoid unilateral exposure!
V. Risk Warning
1. Policy Black Swan: Delay in the implementation of Trump's crypto policy, with ETF capital outflows exceeding expectations.
2. Technical breakdown: If the support at $78,000 is lost, it may trigger panic selling down to $70,000 (predicted by Bitmex's former CEO!).
3. Liquidity crisis: A significant correction in US stocks may lead to a correlated decline in the crypto market.
