『Part.1』🔥Powell's Latest Speech: What Signals Are Being Released? Will the Federal Reserve Delay Interest Rate Cuts? 🚀
1. Introduction: Policy Expectations and Market Focus
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent remarks have once again brought global market attention to interest rate policy. Currently, the world is at a critical juncture of economic recovery and inflation tug-of-war, where every word and phrase from Powell seems to tug at the nerves of financial markets.
In this speech, he acknowledged that inflation is generally trending downwards; on the other hand, he expressed concerns about the weakness of a near-term decline in inflation. At the same time, he maintained the tone of “possibly cutting rates twice this year” and for the first time explicitly pointed out that tariffs could potentially push inflation up in the coming quarters. This sudden variable brings more uncertainty to the market. In the face of potential input-driven inflation pressures, will the Federal Reserve reconsider the originally planned pace of interest rate cuts? This article will delve into the key points of Powell's speech, analyze the policy logic behind it, and explore the potential direction of U.S. interest rates in the future.
2. Analysis of Key Points of the Speech
1. Inflation Decline 'Is Not As Expected': Cautious Optimism Turns Into Vigilant Observation
Powell admitted that although inflation levels have significantly declined from their peak, the slowdown in recent months is concerning. He pointed out that the inflation data since the beginning of this year has not shown sustained improvement, indicating that inflation pressures have not been fully alleviated. This presents a significant gap from the market's earlier expectations. In recent months, many investors have generally bet that the Federal Reserve will start cutting rates in the second half of 2024. However, from Powell's more cautious statements this time, the Fed may wish to see 'more convincing evidence of inflation decline' before taking steps towards rate cuts.
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