#美国加征关税 $ETH As the saying goes, those who are in it are confused, while observers see clearly. Many friends are trapped because they hold ETH or have long contracts stuck, making it difficult to view the ETH market objectively. Sometimes I feel anxious for them because I know that the money many people are trapped in is quite significant for them. If they do not urgently need the money in the short term, it's fine, but what if an emergency arises? I do not hold ETH, nor do I have long or short contracts. I have only made some analytical judgments based on my observations of the market, hoping to help some friends; this does not constitute investment advice. I am not a professional trader, and my technical analysis level is only mediocre. If you incur losses because of my article, please be gentle in your criticism. If you make money, just like and follow my post. Thank you.
First, here is the chart.
Many friends may not understand how the lines and circles in the above chart are derived, so I will try to explain in simple terms below.
First of all, you need to know that this is a daily candlestick chart of Binance ETH spot trading from 2021 to the present.
Secondly, the chart has three horizontal lines and two rectangles, dividing this market segment into four blocks. In fact, it is three blocks, with one block split into two smaller blocks for better market analysis.
Then, the chart has many bubbles of different colors, marking some key positions worth noting. Some positions are difficult to mark but are also worth observing. Due to the excessive number of bubbles, I will not mark them all; the targets are already quite chaotic.
I believe everyone should be able to find patterns. In each area circled by bubbles, there are some obvious price behavior reactions, such as breakouts, stopping declines, false breakouts that fall back, and false breakdowns that recover. You can find some relatively obvious points and connect them with a straight line as much as possible to get lines 1, 2, and 3. It is worth noting that using lines is actually inaccurate; many points do not lie on the same straight line. Rectangles should be used to represent a range; lines are used for convenience. Rectangles 1 and 2 are derived in this way.
Let's take a rough look at the market. From the beginning of 2021, it rose all the way to the end of 2021, followed by a nearly 200-day correction in a three-wave pattern. Then the market saw a brief recovery, followed by another correction, which did not officially end until the end of 2022 or the beginning of 2023, leading to the subsequent bull market. Therefore, objectively speaking, the ETH bull market ended at the end of 2024, and we are currently in a three-wave correction structure (Elliott adjustment wave).
I won't complicate things too much since I don't understand overly professional concepts myself. To keep it brief, I personally believe that the correction wave of ETH has not yet finished. The support at 1750 cannot fully hold. Of course, no one can predict how the market will go. What we can do is prepare some plans in advance so that when a significant market event occurs, we won't be at a loss and can respond in time. This also involves position management; you should keep some spare bullets handy.
Analyzing the two directions of the market around 1750:
If 1750 can hold, we will see a rebound up to 2150; if it stabilizes at 2150, the market will stabilize and continue to rise, looking up to 2350. If it continues to rise, we can expect another two to three hundred points, reaching around 4050, and then a new high. This may bring about an unprecedented explosive bull market, and there may even be a possibility of an altcoin season (fantasy time).
If 1750 cannot hold, the next possible support point is around 1550. If 1550 holds and rebounds upwards, we first look at 1750, then 2150, and gradually look higher. If 1550 cannot hold, the next level is 1350, and then gradually down to around 1086-1000. If it holds, we look slightly upwards; if 1000 does not hold, it will lead to a deep abyss. Personally, I believe that around 1000 should complete the correction and welcome a reversal.
The above only involves changes in price but does not take the time factor into account. No one wants to see the market deteriorate, nor can we be overly optimistic about the market; we can only take it step by step.
Above