#币安理财收益竞技场 Let's talk about the market.

First, let's review this round of the market, starting from the rebound in January 2023, then the reversal, followed by the new highs in late March to early April 2024. The hidden script of this round of rise has finally been completed.

From the results, this stage was indeed the most profitable, especially when I cleared out my positions in altcoins and tokens at relatively high points, leaving only Bitcoin.

At that time, the judgment was that the valuations of altcoins and most tokens were already severely overstretched, remaining in an extremely unreasonable state without any innovation. Then, as the market saw Bitcoin hitting new highs, everyone was looking forward to the altcoin season, making the overall situation even more unreasonable.

Subsequently, the market experienced fluctuations and a decline. In November, Trump won the election, entering what I defined at that time as the "tail-end market." Faced with this stage, my choice was not to chase but to focus on financial management, as I believed at that time that financial management could outperform the market.

Although I also considered short-term trading strategies for altcoins or other tokens, I ultimately gave up after a comprehensive assessment for a clear reason: the core logic of the tail-end market is that emotion outweighs value. Short-term FOMO might bring localized opportunities, but the overall risk is extremely high and could end at any time.

The facts have proven that this judgment was correct.

Speculation is speculation, and value is value.

In the short term, I indeed did not make speculative money, but that itself does not align with my operating philosophy, so it is not regrettable.

Currently, the market has three possible scenarios (either it goes up, down, or moves sideways):

1. Bull market correction ends, a new round of market begins.

2. Another surge above 100,000, forming a second peak.

3. Bear market begins, and the market gradually returns to rationality.

If we combine my judgment on the "tail-end market" last year, the first scenario can basically be ruled out, even if Bitcoin has a slight probability of rising to a new high. There's no need to fantasize about altcoins and tokens.

The probability of the second scenario is also very low; the essence of the tail-end market is emotional harvesting. The market has already done its best to lure people in, and giving everyone a second peak to escape easily is too small a probability.

Therefore, the greater probability is that the bear market has just begun. There may be some small rebounds in the short term, but be prepared to face a larger correction.