I agree with the big guy's viewpoint! Trump changes his orders from morning to night, being inconsistent and dragging the global capital market into a scripted cycle of uncertainty: constantly creating suspense, continuously breaking existing rules, forcing all participants to live in a game structure where 'the next step can change at any moment'. The biggest problem in the US stock market/crypto circle now is not the lack of opportunities to make money, but the lack of reliable assets to hold onto with peace of mind. Once everything calms down slowly, a bull market may quietly arrive. Often, the stronger the uncertainty, the more chaotic and panicked the market, the greater the opportunity!#币安Alpha上新
#美国加征关税 collapsed, so thrilling As soon as Trump raised tariffs, I knew I couldn't wait any longer...
Today is Crazy Thursday, I want to bottom fish for fried chicken... After all, in the end, we still foot the bill for the tariffs; might as well enjoy it now.
First, let's review this round of the market, starting from the rebound in January 2023, then the reversal, followed by the new highs in late March to early April 2024. The hidden script of this round of rise has finally been completed. From the results, this stage was indeed the most profitable, especially when I cleared out my positions in altcoins and tokens at relatively high points, leaving only Bitcoin.
At that time, the judgment was that the valuations of altcoins and most tokens were already severely overstretched, remaining in an extremely unreasonable state without any innovation. Then, as the market saw Bitcoin hitting new highs, everyone was looking forward to the altcoin season, making the overall situation even more unreasonable.
Subsequently, the market experienced fluctuations and a decline. In November, Trump won the election, entering what I defined at that time as the "tail-end market." Faced with this stage, my choice was not to chase but to focus on financial management, as I believed at that time that financial management could outperform the market.
Although I also considered short-term trading strategies for altcoins or other tokens, I ultimately gave up after a comprehensive assessment for a clear reason: the core logic of the tail-end market is that emotion outweighs value. Short-term FOMO might bring localized opportunities, but the overall risk is extremely high and could end at any time.
The facts have proven that this judgment was correct. Speculation is speculation, and value is value. In the short term, I indeed did not make speculative money, but that itself does not align with my operating philosophy, so it is not regrettable.
Currently, the market has three possible scenarios (either it goes up, down, or moves sideways): 1. Bull market correction ends, a new round of market begins. 2. Another surge above 100,000, forming a second peak. 3. Bear market begins, and the market gradually returns to rationality.
If we combine my judgment on the "tail-end market" last year, the first scenario can basically be ruled out, even if Bitcoin has a slight probability of rising to a new high. There's no need to fantasize about altcoins and tokens.
The probability of the second scenario is also very low; the essence of the tail-end market is emotional harvesting. The market has already done its best to lure people in, and giving everyone a second peak to escape easily is too small a probability.
Therefore, the greater probability is that the bear market has just begun. There may be some small rebounds in the short term, but be prepared to face a larger correction.
In fact, the most important thing in investing is to first clarify, what kind of market conditions can you make money from?
This sounds like a simple question, but it is really difficult to answer.
Many people enter the market without a clear goal. They can't hold for the long term, lack patience for regular investments, have no rhythm for short-term trades, can't withstand contracts, are afraid of scams, and always miss out on hot spots.
Seeing others make money, they begin to doubt their original methods and turn to learn from others’ paths. What is the result?
In the end, they have only sampled every path, “observed” every wave of the market, but not truly participated in any. To put it simply, their understanding and execution are all someone else’s, but the losses are their own.
The biggest enemy in investing is never the market, but your uncertainty and wavering mindset.
Don’t be fooled by those who have been in the market for years; they might not even have reached the entry-level of investing. So when does investing truly begin?
It begins when you stop looking around and no longer fantasize that you can “know it all,” but instead realize that you can profit from any market, while acknowledging your imperfections. Admit your personality preferences and ability limits, and choose a strategy and time frame that suit you.
Be willing to delve deeply into one main line of work, rather than constantly trying to copy others’ homework. Even if you miss out on hot spots, remain calm and composed, because you know where your opportunities come from, rather than relying on luck.
In the long run, those who truly make money often do just one thing, but do it to perfection, rather than trying to do everything and ending up doing nothing well.
This world is not lacking in opportunities; rather, you are too eager to seize every opportunity, which causes you to miss the one that truly belongs to you. A truly mature investor is not someone who understands many complex strategies, but rather someone who says, “I know which wave I should profit from, and I also know which wave I cannot profit from.”
Giving up on market conditions that do not belong to you is the highest form of self-discipline in investing.
Don’t envy what others have made. Only the money earned within your circle of competence is truly your asset.
$BTC #金狗势不可挡 Discussing the bull and bear market now is really useless! Because we are most likely in a super cycle! Brothers need to be clear, we are currently in a super contradictory phase in Bitcoin's development history. It could be a weak cycle, or it could be ridiculously strong!
Key indicators of traditional speculative demand and market saturation have basically not yet started.
So generally, people in the circle feel that the real bull market has not yet come.
The weakening market dynamics can be viewed from two aspects: fundamental signals and speculative momentum. Fundamentals have been developing according to a power law growth model, maintaining a 40% compound growth rate every year, which is undeniably promising. But as for speculative momentum, it has been systematically weakening in each cycle. According to the current trend, the peak of this cycle might reach $185,000 in the fourth quarter.
But brothers need to note that Bitcoin ETF has greatly simplified the entry process for institutional funds, and the speed at which sovereign countries are entering far exceeds corporate application expectations, indicating that speculative momentum may be brewing a new situation. Consolidation and accumulation are building breakthrough momentum, and the coin price is unprecedentedly refreshing historical highs before the halving (although the actual impact from the supply side is limited, the psychological effect on the market is significant).
From these signals, an unprecedented “super cycle” market structure is taking shape, which may bring about the craziest price surge in Bitcoin's history!
What exactly will happen, let's wait for time to give us the answer!
So currently, dollar-cost averaging is still a good strategy.
“Youan Research Investment”🛫 There is nothing difficult in the world, only those who are willing to try [Keep it up] What obstacle can't be overcome? Aren't we overcoming it right now?
I still believe that the “blockchain industry” is the way for our generation to avoid being exploited———Youan $SOL
The issue with the altcoin season mainly arises from the exponential growth in the number of cryptocurrencies over the past few years, leading to the dispersion of capital and a lack of innovation. Therefore, it is basically unlikely to see a repeat of the past scenario where prices surged everywhere; in the future, there may be structural and localized valuable increases.
Now, let's talk about the expectations for interest rate cuts; the viewpoint remains unchanged. Do not assume that an interest rate cut means large-scale monetary easing or continued massive surges. We need to consider where the cuts begin, the magnitude of the cuts, and the range in which long-term rates will be maintained.
The past viewpoint was that high-interest rates would stay between 3-4% for a long time. Currently, the appropriate reduction from rates above 5% is merely to prevent an economic recession. Note that this interest rate cut is preventive, not a continuation of printing money to impact the market.
For those willing to deposit money in banks, interest rates of 3%-5% are actually considered high. Significant interest rate cuts typically only occur during market slumps, when stock prices and housing prices continue to decline, causing a loss of confidence; only then will the authorities start to adjust and inject liquidity to save the market. We have not seen a global market that has risen for two years, still at high valuations, and then opens the floodgates for monetary easing.
If monetary easing is implemented at high levels, there will be two issues: 1. High inflation will return; 2. When a real crisis, collapse, or downturn occurs in the market, what will be used to rescue it? Continuing to print larger amounts of money? This is certainly unreliable and will only lead to credit collapse, currency depreciation, and persistently higher inflation.
Appropriate interest rate cuts to prevent economic problems are reasonable. Therefore, at this stage, an interest rate cut does not equate to large-scale monetary easing; it is just a moderate adjustment, and long-term rates will still remain high.
Finally, a brief summary of the altcoin season and the logic of interest rate cuts:
The dispersion and lack of innovation in the cryptocurrency market: As the number of cryptocurrencies increases, the dispersion of capital will indeed affect the overall market performance. In the future, there may be structural and localized increases rather than a comprehensive surge.
Expectations for interest rate cuts: An interest rate cut does not equal large-scale monetary easing, which is very important. The purpose of interest rate cuts is to prevent economic recession, not to stimulate the market. Appropriate cuts in a high-interest environment are to prevent excessive tightening of the economy, not to trigger a new round of inflation. #币安Alpha公布第5批项目 #币安LaunchpoolBIO
There is really not much expectation for the current market. The last round of bottom 3000 rose to 69000, about 23 times. It broke through the new high of 20,000 and rose to 69,000, about 3.3 times. This round of bottom 15,000 rose to 108,000, more than 7 times. The new high 69,000 to 108,000 is less than 1 time. As the volume gets bigger and bigger, it is already very good overall. If you want to make money from the big cake, you can only layout a large position from the bottom. It will be very satisfying if the total funds can be multiplied several times.
I have seen these days that although there is support below the concubine and sol, there is no support below the big cake to 74,000. If the big cake starts to continue to pull back, the support of the concubine and sol may be like paper.
Follow the trend in the big cycle, and eat pork trotters in your spare time - you can't stop making money🚀🚀🚀 Wealth code: "If you want to make big money, you can only make a large position from the bottom, and you will be satisfied if the total funds can be multiplied several times."
The other day a fan asked me if I wanted to work in Japan.
In fact, there are only two purposes for working in Japan: one is to make money to spend back home, and the other is to change a lifestyle. These two purposes are completely different.
Let's talk about making money to spend back home first. If you came to Japan to work in the 70s, 80s, and 90s, it was really a gold rush. At that time, the average monthly salary in China was only a few hundred yuan, and working in Japan, saving 20,000 to 30,000 yuan a month was not a problem. At that time, it was really rich. This also led to many people sneaking into Japan to seek gold.
However, after 2000, China developed rapidly, and prices, housing prices, and wages began to rise. In particular, the sharp rise in real estate has driven the real economy, and many people have made money as a result. It is no longer a wise move to go to Japan to seek gold. Another problem here is the yen exchange rate. At that time, 10,000 yen could be exchanged for more than 800 yuan, but now 10,000 yen can only be exchanged for about 460 yuan (nearly halved), and the yen continues to depreciate.
Let's talk about the income in Japan. According to the latest data, the average annual income of Japanese general employees in 2024 is about 4,580,000 yen (about 213,000 yuan). This data covers comprehensive statistics of various industries and positions. The income differences between different age groups and genders are also obvious. The average annual income of men is 5,630,000 yen, while the average annual income of women is 3,140,000 yen. In addition, income usually rises with age, and workers between 55 and 59 years old have the highest average annual income of 5,460,000 yen.
It should be noted that these are all pre-tax incomes, and 20%-30% will be deducted when they are received. In a year, the actual income is about 150,000-160,000 yuan. Of course, some technical jobs will have higher wages, and some will be lower.
So, if you come to Japan to work and make money to spend back home, it is not realistic now, and you can't save much. And if you live for a long time, you basically earn money in Japan and spend it in Japan.
If you can earn more than 10,000 yuan a month in China, it doesn't make much sense to come to Japan to work and make money. Unless you really can't make it in China, or prefer foreign countries and plan to live abroad for a long time, then Japan is indeed a good choice. After all, Japan is very close to China, and it only takes 3-4 hours to fly back to China$BTC #比特币战略储备
The market is likely to continue rising during the day. Be cautious of sideways movement or a pullback for a second bottom confirmation before continuing to rise in the evening. Have you noticed that capable people have a common trait? Once they have a goal, they do not hesitate, do not wait, and have strong execution skills. If the results are not good, they review and optimize; if the results are good, they pursue further success and continue to delve deeper. Teacher Luo Xiang said: No matter how difficult the book is to memorize, it only takes a few months; running may be tiring, but it only lasts for a few minutes; even the hardest problems have solutions. Therefore, do not avoid things you find difficult; first, understand them well and master them, and you will be better than others. Please make sure to repeatedly save yourself from the trials and tribulations of this world without any hesitation. If you do not save yourself, who will save you? $BTC #MagicEden(ME)上市币安 #市场回调抄底还是观望? #MicroStrategy增持BTC #
Web3 has the potential to significantly change finance in the following ways:
1. Decentralized Finance (DeFi): Web3 promotes the development of decentralized financial applications, allowing financial services to operate independently of traditional centralized financial institutions. Users can directly engage in lending, trading, savings, and other activities, reducing intermediary costs and improving the accessibility and efficiency of financial services.
2. Cross-border payments and remittances: Web3 applications based on blockchain technology can enable faster and lower-cost cross-border payments and remittances, reducing the complexity of intermediaries and currency conversion.
3. Asset digitization and tokenization: Various assets, such as real estate, artworks, and even intellectual property, can be digitized and represented as tokens. This increases the liquidity of assets, broadens investment channels, and lowers investment thresholds.
4. Smart contracts: Self-executing smart contracts can ensure the accuracy and immutability of financial transactions, reducing the risk of default and disputes, while enhancing the efficiency and transparency of contract execution.
5. Financial data sovereignty and privacy protection: Users have greater control over their financial data, allowing them to decide how to share and use this data, while enhancing data security and privacy protection.
6. Financial inclusion: Web3 has the potential to provide financial services to those who cannot access traditional financial services, such as individuals in developing countries or those with insufficient credit histories.
However, the application of Web3 in the financial sector also faces challenges such as regulatory uncertainty, technological risks, and security vulnerabilities. $BTC #defi #山寨季将持续多久? $BTC
As Ethereum steps into the threshold of the Pectra upgrade, users will first experience a significant increase in transaction speed and efficiency. The Prague update will optimize the workflow of the execution layer, making the execution of smart contracts faster and more reliable. Imagine a congested network like a crowded highway, now meticulously expanded and optimized, allowing vehicles (i.e., transactions) to move more smoothly, greatly reducing user wait times. At the same time, the introduction of Electra stabilizes the consensus mechanism, like equipping this highway with an intelligent navigation system, ensuring that every transaction can accurately reach its destination.
With the implementation of the Pectra upgrade, the staking mechanism will also undergo revolutionary changes. With the support of Electra, stakers will experience a more efficient staking process, with lower staking thresholds and more generous staking rewards. It's like opening a new door, allowing more users to participate in the maintenance and governance of the network, which is crucial for the overall health of the Ethereum ecosystem. The improvement in staking efficiency is like adding a new vitality to the network, attracting more participants to join and jointly promote the development of Ethereum. #以太坊暴涨 $ETH