ETH today is following a laid-back cultivation route, with price fluctuations calmer than an electrocardiogram, but the calmer it gets before the storm, the faster the dog dealers' scythe cuts the leeks!
Today, ETH opened at $1838, peaked at $1838.51, and dropped to a low of $1836.49, with a daily amplitude of less than $2, creating a living example of a 'loom market'. The dog dealers are clearly controlling the market, with orders as thin as paper; a slightly larger order can cause the price to fluctuate by 0.1%, but they neither push it up nor down, purely annoying short-term players.
Yesterday, ETH plummeted from $1912 down to around $1800; the brothers who went long last night are all crowded on the rooftop, cursing Ethereum for being unreliable.
After the Cancun upgrade, gas fees have indeed decreased, but today the daily trading volume of ETH on Uniswap has plummeted by 37% year-on-year, indicating that retail investors haven't entered the market at all. The Layer 2 project Movement Labs did conduct a token buyback, but the price still hasn't improved; the technical narrative can no longer drive sentiment.
Signal for a sell-off: an address transferred 12,000 ETH to Coinbase three hours ago; this guy's last transfer into the market saw ETH drop by 9%.
Signal for a bottom: another whale placed a buy order for 5,000 ETH at $1835, specifically targeting the chips sold off by dog dealers.
Although tariff policies mainly affect benchmark risk assets like Bitcoin, the correlation between ETH and U.S. tech stocks has risen to 0.65.
Short-term: order placement beats hand speed, making profits relies on luck.
Support level at $1835: it has dropped to this level three times today and has been pulled back each time; those wanting to buy the dip should place orders at $1833, but don’t exceed 10% of your position.
Long-term: wait for a black swan to deliver cheap chips.
For dollar-cost averaging: after the Cancun upgrade, the annualized yield for ETH staking has risen to 3.8%; if it drops below $1800, close your eyes and increase your position, hold on to wait for the ETF approval in the second half of the year.
With ETH's current state, it resembles the sideways market before the Shanghai upgrade in 2024 — it was flat for half a month, and on the last day, it surged by 20%. But this time, the script might be reversed: the longer it stays flat, the harder it will drop! Especially with the tariff coming into effect on April 2nd + the Fed turning hawkish, the dog dealers are just waiting to use the bad news to push the price down and collect the bloodied chips from retail investors.
Comment + follow, and I will help you dissect the dog dealers' control strategies over ETH! I will help you understand the fake breakout traps behind the K-lines and prepare for the market turning points in April!
