Today is March 26, 2025, the fifteenth day since Bitcoin hit a low of $76,600 on March 11. Yesterday, it was confirmed that $76,600 is the medium-term bottom for Bitcoin. The crypto market saw a significant bottoming out on March 11, and twelve days later, on March 23, was the final confirmation day. Conversely, if Bitcoin rises significantly and does not make a new high twelve days after reaching a peak, that will be the final confirmation day for the top.
Since Bitcoin hit the yearly line, the crypto market has stopped declining. Instead, it has started to repeatedly test the bottom, preparing for a U-shaped reversal, which will gradually accelerate over time. Now Bitcoin is experiencing slight weekly rises, and suddenly there will be a flash crash; after the flash crash, it will formally enter a U-shaped reversal. The price volatility of Bitcoin is getting smaller; we are currently in the early stages of the weekly U-shaped reversal.
Hot coins often underperform the market for a long time after the hype fades. Regardless of the asset, as long as it attracts public attention and investment, it is destined to revert to the mean for a long time in the future. Only a very small number of people in the market can make money.
Similar investment portfolios and identical investment philosophies are what crypto investors need to avoid; collective public consensus is often wrong. Following the crowd can only yield average returns or lead to a bloodbath. Not everyone can achieve contrarian investing, and the opportunities for contrarian investing are often very rare, appearing only in extreme panic or greed. Contrarian investing is only suitable for patient investors waiting for favorable conditions.
In any global investment market, before financial oligarchs enter, ordinary people can still benefit. Once financial oligarchs enter the game, ordinary people can basically only drink soup. This is the current situation. Trump's son preemptively placed high-leverage long contracts and then used his father's social media to shout orders, immediately closing the positions and cashing out. After a mere 10% rise, it fell back down again, and people no longer believe in the meme of celebrity shouting orders. They no longer trust celebrity altcoins. The market is filled with celebrities shouting orders. There is no new incremental capital entering the market, no profit effect, and without new stories, there is no new future.
This time I finally understand that the meme rebound of celebrities shouting orders is just empty. Lying flat during a bear market and waiting for the next bull market is better than anything else. But the problem is that people cannot stand being lonely. Go to bed early, get up early, and run every day. Only by exercising well can one deserve the A8 life of crypto circle investors.
Insiders from a major exchange revealed that compared to six months ago, 70% to 80% of accounts are nearly zero and in a state of shock. The number of new users skyrocketed after Trump launched his token, reaching a peak and then plummeting sharply, now only at 2% of the peak. In just half a year, nearly four-fifths of retail investors have perished; this bull market has really been a disaster.
Now the bottom for altcoins has arrived, and the crypto market has entered a phase of long positions at a loss, price consolidation, shrinking trading volume, and volatility. Some relatively strong altcoins have clearly emerged from the bottom, while most cryptocurrencies are still consolidating at the bottom.
The vast majority of cryptocurrencies will only start to rise after Bitcoin has exited its bottom. More altcoins, especially meme coins on the Ethereum network, will only emerge from their bottom region after Ethereum reaches a new high. The cryptocurrency market will soon experience a magnificent independent market trend.
Once Bitcoin completes the U-shaped reversal on a weekly basis, the trend will be irreversible. Any daily fluctuations triggered by negative news will be swallowed by the weekly upward line; positive news will accelerate the rise. I believe the three major factors most likely to trigger FOMO in the market again are: Bitcoin reaching a new high, Ethereum surging to a new high, igniting FOMO in the meme sector, and new DeFi play bringing profit effects and new global incremental funds. There will definitely be a moment of FOMO for everyone in 2025; patience is required.