BTC fell to 78,000 yesterday and quickly rebounded to 84,000, with a fluctuation range of 6,000 points, which is not small. My expectation is that the bottom is still around 79,000, which is not much different from my expectation. However, this is not the time for us to rush to bottom-fish, but rather an opportunity for the market to continue to build momentum. The danger of chasing rebounds at this time is much higher than at other times.
The U.S. announced the latest personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index for January on Friday, with all data meeting expectations, alleviating market concerns about a resurgence of inflation and providing room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Encouraged by this, major U.S. stock indices rose across the board, and Bitcoin rebounded after falling to around 78,000 yesterday, briefly breaking through 85,000.
The direct reason for the significant drop in BTC is the panic selling by institutions. There has been a large outflow from ETFs in the past week, even the highest outflow in the past year, indicating the severity of the panic among institutions. The two giants, BlackRock and Fidelity, have also been selling heavily during this period, further intensifying the panic.
The panic among institutions is directly related to Trump's policies after taking office. Domestically, he appointed Musk to carry out drastic 'anti-corruption' measures, significantly streamlining U.S. government departments and cutting a large number of government employees. Externally, Trump has gone all out, completely ignoring the international image, increasing tariffs, selling 'gold cards', demanding Ukraine's minerals, etc. In short, as long as it can make money, he is willing to do anything.
If a big bear market really arrives this year, the time window for the market to find a bottom should also be at the end of the year. The Federal Reserve's market rescue actions before that are likely to only delay further collapse of the market.
The support level in the $60,000 range is quite strong, as the costs for ETFs, MSTR, and many funds are around this area. This range is also a densely packed area for chips and may resist for a long time. It’s worth noting that even if a bear market is confirmed, the market does not hit the bottom all at once; it always drops a bit, rebounds a bit, and then drops again. The best strategy is to dollar-cost average during each pullback, avoid looking at news and various analyses, and stick to one principle: when it rises a lot, look for a drop; when it drops a lot, look for a rise. Once there is a certain profit, withdraw and do not get attached.