Today Powell speak (FOMC)

If he change the SP = S&P 500 , Bitcoin Bullish

If stay hawks we still consolidate or bearish

Based on the February 2025 data

February 2025 Data

- CPI: Up 0.2% (monthly), 2.8% (yearly) – inflation slowed from 3.0% in January.

- Core CPI: Up 0.2% (monthly), 3.1% (yearly) – still above the 2% target.

- PPI: 0% (monthly), 3.2% (yearly) – producer price pressures also eased.

- NFP: Added 151,000 jobs, unemployment rate steady at 4.1% – labor market solid but slowing.

Simple Analysis

1. Inflation Down but Not Ideal: CPI at 2.8% and Core CPI at 3.1% show inflation cooling, but it’s still far from The Fed’s 2% PCE target. This could make The Fed more optimistic yet cautious.

2. Stable Labor Market: NFP at 151,000 and unemployment at 4.1% suggest the economy isn’t overheating or stalling too much. A soft landing remains possible.

3. Projection Changes?:

Inflation: The Fed might slightly lower its 2025 inflation forecast (e.g., from 2.7% to 2.5%) due to the slowing trend.

Interest Rates: They could hold rates at 4.25%-4.50% now but signal more rate cuts later in 2025 (e.g., 50 basis points) if inflation keeps dropping.

Unemployment: Projection likely stays at 4.1%-4.2%, as the labor market is steady.