As of March 2025, Bitcoin prices may still be in a high volatility state (assuming the bull market trend of the past few months continues), but may face adjustment pressure in the short term. Recent market sentiment may be influenced by macroeconomic factors (such as Federal Reserve policy expectations, inflation data) or specific events in cryptocurrencies (such as large on-chain transfers, exchange dynamics).
2. Technical analysis
Support and resistance levels: In the short term, key support levels may be in the range of $88,000 to $90,000, which is considered the average cost basis for short-term holders (based on common logic from on-chain data analysis). If prices fall below this range, it may trigger larger sell-offs. Resistance levels may be at $100,000 or higher, depending on whether new highs are set recently.
Trend patterns: BTC may be forming a short-term consolidation pattern, such as an ascending triangle or converging triangle. This pattern usually indicates a breakout, but the direction depends on market forces. If it breaks upwards, it may challenge previous highs; if it breaks downwards, it may test lower support.
Indicator signals: RSI (Relative Strength Index) near the overbought zone (above 70) may indicate short-term pullback risks; if oscillating around 50, it suggests the market is in a wait-and-see mode. Trend indicators like MACD showing divergence (such as prices making new highs but momentum weakening) may also signal an adjustment.
3. On-chain data perspective
Short-term holder behavior: The profit and loss status of short-term holders is key. If their MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value Ratio) is close to 1 or slightly above, it indicates they are still in profit, and selling pressure may be limited. However, if prices fall below their cost basis, it may trigger panic selling.
Trading volume and liquidity: If recent trading volume shrinks, it may indicate insufficient market momentum, making it prone to rapid fluctuations; if trading volume drops sharply, caution is needed for trend reversals.
4. Market sentiment and external factors
Emotion-driven: Retail sentiment may fluctuate due to news (such as regulatory dynamics or institutional buying announcements). If the current bull market continues, retail investors' tendency to 'buy the dip' may provide support for prices.
Macroeconomic impact: If the US dollar index strengthens or US stocks pull back, BTC may be under pressure; conversely, it may benefit from the upward movement of risk assets.
5. Short-term trend forecast
Optimistic scenario: If BTC holds key support (such as $88,000) and trading volume increases, it may break resistance in the short term (within a few days to a week), targeting $100,000 or higher. This situation may be driven by positive news or technical breakthroughs.
Pessimistic scenario: If it breaks below support and loses key psychological levels (such as $85,000), it may trigger a chain reaction, with short-term targets looking down to $80,000 or even lower. The adjustment range could be 10%-20%, consistent with the normal retracement range in historical bull markets.
Neutral scenario: Prices may consolidate within the current range, waiting for clearer signals, with volatility kept within 5%.
6. Recommendations
Short-term traders should closely monitor the breakout of support and resistance levels, while combining indicators like trading volume and RSI to judge direction. Risk management is crucial.
