As of March 5, 2025, TRUMP coin may have cooled down from the initial hype when it launched on January 17. According to the typical lifecycle of meme coins, TRUMP may have gone through the following stages:
Initial surge: Driven by Trump's personal brand and inauguration (January 20), the price may have skyrocketed from a few dollars to $70-75 (based on historical reported highs).
Correction and fluctuations: Following profit-taking or market digestion of enthusiasm, the price may retreat to a lower range (like $15-40), entering a consolidation phase.
Current status: Assuming the current price is in the $15-20 range (based on support levels mentioned in post X and general market speculation), the short-term trend may depend on market sentiment and technical signals.
Technical analysis
Support and resistance:
Support level: $15-16 may be a key short-term support (users on X mentioned strong support at $15.66-15.76). If it falls below, it may further drop to $12-14.
Resistance level: $17-19 may be short-term resistance; if broken, it could challenge $20-25, or even higher (like $30).
Trend pattern: TRUMP may be in a descending channel or triangular consolidation. If the price approaches support with increased volume, it may signal a rebound; if support is broken, it may continue to decline.
Indicators: If RSI is around 30, it may indicate oversold conditions, increasing the probability of a rebound; if above 70, it may be overbought, facing corrective pressure.
Market sentiment and catalysts
Short-term bullish:
Someone mentioned the 'crypto roundtable' on March 1 on X (assumed to be a fictional or real event); regardless of the outcome, it may bring attention to TRUMP and drive short-term gains.
If Trump or related organizations (like CIC Digital LLC, holding 80% of the supply) release positive news (like policy support or token use), it may trigger FOMO (fear of missing out) sentiment.
Short-term bearish:
The high volatility of meme coins may lead to unsustainable 'pump and dump' scenarios (X users mentioned that such rises typically only have one peak).
If large holders (the team holding 80% of the supply) sell off, or if the market loses interest in Trump’s political influence, the price may quickly drop.
Short-term trend prediction
Optimistic scenario (a few days to 1-2 weeks):
If it holds the support at $15-16 and breaks through the resistance at $17, TRUMP may rise to $20-25, or even challenge $30. The rise may be driven by conference news or social media hype.
Increased trading volume and a rebound in RSI would be bullish signals.
Pessimistic scenario:
If it falls below $15, it may drop to $12-14, or even lower (like $10). This may be triggered by selling pressure or a lack of new capital entering the market.
Shrinking trading volume or a persistently low RSI would be bearish signals.
Neutral scenario:
Price is consolidating in the $15-20 range, waiting for a clear direction. The volatility may be within 5%-10%.
Key observation points
Trump dynamics: Any news related to Trump (like policy statements or posts on X) may trigger immediate volatility.
On-chain data: Monitor the movements of large wallets and the inflow/outflow of exchanges. A significant influx of tokens to exchanges may indicate a sell-off.
Market correlation: TRUMP may be related to the trends of Bitcoin (BTC) or Solana (SOL, its operating chain). If BTC strengthens, TRUMP may follow with a rebound.
In the short term (a few days to a few weeks), the trend of TRUMP coin may exhibit high volatility, ranging between $15-25. In an optimistic scenario, if external catalysts (like a conference or comments from Trump) boost sentiment, it could break through $20; in a pessimistic scenario, if support is lost, it may drop to $12-14. Given its meme coin nature and 80% of supply concentrated in the team, the risk is high, and short-term traders should set strict stop-losses (like below $15) and watch for breakout signals (like increased volume above $17).
