This month, $BTC the Bitcoin price has consecutively broken through two key price levels:
Short-term holders (STH) cost line (92K): STH behavior dominates$BTC short-term price trends, so the STH cost line (STH-RP) often corresponds to the watershed of local bull and bear trends. When the BTC price falls below STH-RP, if the market is still in a bullish inertia, short-term chip optimism about subsequent trends remains, and the willingness to sell near the cost price decreases, driving the price to rebound.However, in this decline, BTC failed to stabilize near the cost line, indicating that STH's market sentiment and absorption capacity have clearly weakened, panic selling has intensified, and the market has entered a downward spiral, with the trend shifting from bullish to bearish;
Upper edge of the chip gap (85K): This month, $BTC the price has fallen into the chip vacuum area of 75K-85K. This range did not generate effective turnover (chip accumulation) due to the rapid price increase, therefore lacking price consensus. In extreme cases, the price may directly drop to 75K to seek new bottom support;
URPD chip distribution
Key price support from the chip structure:
93K-98K: This range is the price consensus area established by BTC after several months of oscillation around 90K-100K, accumulating over 2.6 million BTC. Currently, there are no obvious signs of damage. As long as there is no large-scale sell-off in this consensus area, the BTC price is expected to rebound towards this range after market sentiment recovers;
83K-85K: After the release of favorable core PCE data, market sentiment has warmed. From the perspective of chip structure, this range has formed a recent chip consensus, and short-term funds are entering to buy at the bottom, forming short-term support;
78K-80K / 72K-75K: If market sentiment further deteriorates and BTC fails to stabilize at 83K, the price may test the following supports in order:80K (weak support at the round number), 78K (low point of this round of correction), 72K-75K (price level at the start of this round of market), corresponding to the bottom of the chip gap;;
In extreme cases, the market is likely to rebuild a bottom price consensus in the 72K-75K range.
