1. $RED Reasonable launch price prediction
Based on the pre-market price, valuation of projects in the same track, historical yield of Binance Launchpool, RedStone financing pricing and market sentiment, the launch price of RED is expected to be in the 1u-2u range, corresponding to a new issuance income of 0.27%-0.54%
Current pre-market price of RED ~1.2u
The yield of the previous $BIO Launchpool was 0.52%, corresponding to a RED price of ~1.92u. Considering the recent market sentiment, the yield of this period is unlikely to exceed this level.
2. What is the Binance pre-market circuit breaker mechanism?
The RedStone pre-market trading will pilot the "Upward Circuit Breaker Mechanism". In the first three days after the new coin is listed, the upper limit of the increase is set at 200%, 300% and 400% of the opening price respectively (i.e. if the price of RED rises to 200% of the opening price on the first day, the transaction will trigger the upper limit.)
Binance’s trial of the “daily limit” mechanism may be to deal with the extreme situation in which new coins have skyrocketed after listing and then plummeted, reduce the possibility of speculative pull-ups and then dumps, make the price trend of new coins more stable, thereby providing retail investors with a more stable trading environment and reducing the risk of losses caused by violent fluctuations.
At the same time, the pre-market sets a single account position limit (such as 5,000 RED) to limit the ability of large investors to hold chips in a concentrated manner, effectively inhibiting large investors from manipulating market prices. This helps reduce short-term market fluctuations and ensures that retail investors can trade in a relatively fair and orderly market environment.
After reading this, smart traders may have discovered that under the price limit mechanism, the opening price of new coins becomes very important. Currently, Binance has not announced the opening price of RED, but assuming that the opening price of RED is set at 0.1u, we can deduce the situation after RED goes online:
a. Initial daily limit surge
Since the opening price is relatively low, according to the upward circuit breaker mechanism of pre-market trading, there is a high probability that the price will rise continuously in the first two days. The highest price on the first day can rise to 0.3 US dollars (an increase of 200%), and the next day it can rise from 0.3 US dollars to 1.2 US dollars (an increase of 300%). This rapid upward trend will attract market attention and stimulate investors' enthusiasm for participation.
b. Price differentiation and smooth transition
Based on the estimated value of RED, the market is expected to diverge on the third day. As the price gradually rises and approaches or reaches the reasonable price range expected by the market (such as 1.2-1.8 USD), investors' opinions will diverge. Some investors believe that the price has reached a reasonable level and may choose to take profits; while investors who are optimistic about the long-term potential of the project will continue to hold or buy. This divergence will help to smoothly transition to the fourth day of spot trading, avoid the sharp rise and fall (ugly upper lead) that is common in the opening of new coins in the past, and make the price trend more reasonable and orderly.
Other risk warnings:
Liquidity stratification, reduced trading willingness: Although the circuit breaker mechanism stabilizes prices to a certain extent, it may cause liquidity stratification problems. In the price-restricted stage, the price fluctuation space is limited, and retail investors may think that the profit margin is not large, thus reducing their trading willingness, and market activity may be affected.
Cross-platform arbitrage risk: Arbitrage opportunities will arise if other platforms that open pre-market trading are still trading normally and their prices are significantly higher than the Binance pre-market. The flow of arbitrage funds may undermine the price stability of Binance’s pre-market market, and retail investors need to pay attention to the prices of pre-market transactions on other platforms in real time.
3. RedStone Project Introduction
RedStone is a modular oracle that focuses on providing low-cost, highly flexible, and multi-chain oracle solutions. Currently, RedStone has been integrated with hundreds of Tier 1 protocols including USDe, Pendle, Morph Blue, Berachain, EtherFi, and Lombard BTC, and ranks fourth in the oracle track with TVS $4.73B (market share 7.49%).
Advantages of RedStone
Cost-effective
Data verification through EigenLayer AVS makes the price data verification process more efficient and greatly reduces Gas consumption.
The model of off-chain data processing + on-chain verification achieves efficient scalability while ensuring security.
Adopt Arweave data storage to reduce long-term storage costs while ensuring data persistence and traceability.
Modular architecture
It adopts a modular architecture and supports Push & Pull dual modes, allowing you to choose precisely filtered data or original data streams based on project requirements.
Plug-and-Play design allows replacement of different system components without affecting system performance and reliability.
Cross-chain compatibility: Data is encrypted and signed by the provider and can be verified on any chain that supports basic cryptographic primitives, ensuring wide adaptability.
Data diversity
Supports multiple data types, not limited to asset prices, but also covers NFT valuations, games, insurance, sports statistics, green bonds, credit scores, etc.
Through an open data provider mechanism, developers and the community can contribute new data sources to achieve true decentralization and transparency.
Highly customizable, you can create unique data flows based on your needs to support innovative DeFi protocols and emerging Web3 applications.
The following is a comparison between RedStone, Chainlink, and Pyth:
Comparison of development:
In summary, RedStone, Chainlink, and Pyth are all top oracle platforms. With innovative design and a rapidly growing ecosystem, they have great potential in the future. If RedStone can reach Pyth's $2B FDV, the price of RED will be around $2. Do you think it will reach that?
Binance Pre-market will list RED/USDT at 2025-02-28 10:00 (UTC).
Happy Trading ^^
#Launchpool#RedStone#币安LaunchpoolRED
